Hurricanes update

Gustav is now in Little River County, Arkansas, near the Red River and Bowie County, Texas, closest to the town of Ashdown, Arkansas. Since yesterday afternoon he has moved this way. Rain up to 10" has been dumped in that area, and tornado warnings are still out in central Louisiana. Orleans residents are also now allowed to go home to check their property.

Hanna is at 60 mph and 996 mb. It should hit Charleston as a Category 1 hurricane around midnight Friday, but in the next three days COULD hit anywhere from Boca Raton to Morehead City, North Carolina (near Cape Lookout). The Clemson game could be moved because of it (they are playing the Citadel). In the next five days, it will make its way up the east coast, being in Maine by the end of the weekend.

Ike is still churning its way west. In five days, it should be a Category 3, and could be anywhere from Miami to the upper Keys, but in reality shouldn't quite be that far. New Orleans and Houston should be on alert for this one. Now its at 65 mph and 996 mb, but will most likely strengthen to a hurricane today.

Josephine is at 60 mph and 1000 mb, but will most likely stay out at sea.

No words on any evacuations, but The Post and Courier is showing the contraflow routes (although I don't know if they call it contraflow in SC).

2:30 PM UPDATE: Gustav is still in Little River County, Arkansas, near Winthrop, and still dropping heavy rain. Areas between Alexandria & Shreveport have gotten up to 17" of rain so far.

Hannah is now projected to make landfall in the Grand Strand area near Georgetown, but not until Saturday morning, and then skirt the coast and be over Boston as a tropical storm on Sunday morning.

9 PM UPDATE: Hanna looks like it now might be on course to hit Hampton Roads and the Outer Banks by Saturday afternoon...and Ike is a major hurricane that may follow in her footsteps.

Gustav, Hanna, Ike & Josephine??

Gustav is now a tropical depression, and the hurricane center has issued the last advisory on it. It made landfall as a Cat 2 just west of Cocodrie in Terrebonne Parish. It then moved through western Terrebonne, moved near the intersectino of Terrebonne, Saint Mary's and Assumption Parishes and then went up by Patterson and Morgan City in St. Mary's Parish. It then weakened to a Category 1, passing by Charenton in St. Mary's, up to Catahoula after moving through Iberia to St. Martin's Parish (the largest French-speaking area in the country), then went near the intersection of St. Landry/St. Martin/Lafayette, near Sunset & Grand Coteau. It then moved up to Evangeline Parish near Plattville. Finally it weakened to a tropical storm near Calcasieu in Rapides Parish, then moved to Vernon parish, near its intersection with Natchitoches & Rapides (near Temple). It was weakened to a Tropical Depression in Sabine Parish, near Marthasville on the Natchitoches Parish line.

Folks in NOLA can't go back in yet, but that evacuation order should be lifted by the end of the week. There was quite a bit of damage in Baton Rouge surprisingly because of the surprisingly northward turn it made, which includes the LSU campus. Hurricane winds hit all of south central Louisiana, including the NOLA metro area except for the north shore, which only got tropical storm winds. Those extended all the way from just east of Houston to Pensacola. Now there are tornadoes in Alabama, Florida and Mississippi.

As for Hanna, in the next three days, she could make landfall anywhere from Fort Lauderdale to Jacksonville. However, the 5-day cone includes the east coast from Fort Lauderdale all the way to the Maine/Nova Scotia border. Landfall is most likely around Charleston, South Carolina as a strong Category 2. Currently it's a strong tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and 987 mb.

For info on this storm, check out WSAV in Savannah, WITN in the Outer Banks, and WAVY TV in Hampton Roads.

On to Ike, in five days, Ike could be a strong Category 2 hurricane sitting in the Bahamas and aiming towards the Florida Straits and possibly the Gulf. There's no real chance of a US landfall by Sunday afternoon though.

Finally, Tropical Depression 10 formed this morning, and will most likely be Josephine by the 11 AM advisory. This could be a Category 1 by Sunday afternoon, however by then it will still only be in the middle of the Atlantic.

If you're wondering what's coming, Kyle, Laura and Marco are the next names on the list, however there are no other "trouble" areas to be concerned with right now. As for comparison, the last time there were 3 named systems was in 2005 with Maria, Nate and Ophelia. By Friday, all Hanna, Ike and Josephine could be all hurricanes at the same time. Also by comparison, in 2005 we were already on storm M - Maria.

Now the big question (especially since I'm obviously not going to my work trip in NOLA today...is where the heck do we go to the beach next week??!

11:45 UPDATE:
Gustav: He's now in Bossier Parish, near Taylortown and Elm Grove and has moved through Natchitoches and Red River parishes, 13 miles SE of Shreveport.

Hanna: This is now forecast to be a Category 1 by Friday noon. This is when she should make landfall around Charleston, although it could be anywhere from Miami to Hilton Head, or on the Gulf from Tampa to Saint Marks (panhandle). It's 70 mph with pressure of 987 (unchanged).

Ike: He should be a Cat 2 by Monday, or possibly even a 3. The winds are at 60 mph and the pressure is 1002. The track is the same and he should be upgraded to a Hurricane by tomorrow.

Josephine: Jo is official, and will still be a Tropical Storm likely by Monday. It may recurve out to sea but it's too early to know.

5 PM UPDATE: Hanna is treking along and northern Florida, Georgia and southern South Carolina coastal communities are getting prepared just in case. Gustav is now in Caddo Parish just near Ida, right at the corner of Miller County, Arkansas & Cass County, Texas.

Gustav, Hanna & (Ike)

Gustav looks bad, but not horrific. It's planning to come in between Grande Isle and Cocodrie, and that's not good b/c Grande Isle, where Betsy made landfall in the 60's, is the worst possible place to land which puts NOLA in the dirty side of the storm. That's also worrisome because most storms tend to jog right just before landfall (think Edouard, Wilma, Katrina, Rita, Ivan, etc. etc.). However, the official cone of death still includes everywhere between Houston and the Mississippi/Louisiana border. It's a 3, but could strengthen to a 4 by the 5 PM EDT/4 PM CDT advisory, but will most likely (I think) make landfall as a weak 3 (which is STILL a bad storm).

Tropical Storm WARNINGS are in effect for Franklin, Gulf, Bay, Walton, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa & Escambia (Florida) Counties. Then a Hurricane WARNINGS are in effect for Baldwin & Mobile (Alabama) Counties, Jackson, Harrison & Hancock (Mississippi) Counties, and St. Tammany, Orleans, St. Bernard, Tangipahoa, Livingston, Ascension, St. James, St. John the Baptist, St. Charles, Lafourche, Terrebonne, Plaquemines, St. Mary, Iberia, Vermilion & eastern Cameron (Louisian) Parishes (this includes metro NOLA and Lake Pontchartrain). A Hurricane WATCH is up for western Cameron Parish, and Jefferson and Chambers Counties in Texas.

That is not all yet though. Tropical Storm Hanna is on track to strike the Atlantic Coast, possibly as a Category 3. The 5 day cone includes all of Florida except for Key West and areas west of Saint George Island in the Panhandle. It also includes areas of Georgia (coastal, southern and central), South Carolina, and North Carolina up to Surf City.

To keep up to date with Gustav: WWL.

Finally, Ike could form any minute, and could strike ANYWHERE, or NOWHERE (we won't know until it forms and we get a track!).

St. Charles & St. Bernard are starting evacuations

Scene in Baton Rouge:


St. Bernard and St. Charles are starting assisted evacuations, and may start (along with others) mandatory evacuations by tomorrow. Right now Gustav is leaving Jamaica, and could hit anywhere between Corpus Christi and Destin, Florida in the next five days. However, it is most likely to hit Houma around midnight Monday night. My flight on Delta is now in a situation where I can change it without penalty up until September 8. Lafourche has a mandatory evacuation by 3 PM tomorrow. The Saints will most likely be going to Indianapolis.

Hanna is also still out there, and is taking a weird hook south at the end of the 5 day track.

More updates to come...BTW though, if I had plans this weekend anywhere from the Louisiana/Texas border to Panama City, I would SERIOUSLY consider cancelling my plans. Good luck everyone.

11 AM UPDATE: Gustav is reorganizing after heading back over water, and now eastern Louisiana from Lafourche Parish all the way to the Mississippi/Louisiana border including New Orleans and all of Jefferson Parish is in the 3 day cone.

Also, John McCain's running mate will be Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Finally, if you're going to get gas, get it NOW, because gas is going to quickly rise with the threat of Gustav!

Here are the Contraflow maps for New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana. This will probably start tomorrow.

Gustav, possible Hanna and football season

Gustav update: The tracks for Gustav are a mess because unexpectedly, Gustav jogged south this morning and is now expected to go around the southern coast of Jamaica instead of the northern coast. New models are being run now, but basically the model tracks mean nothing. However "officially" the track has it possibly making or having made landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Panama City. Winds are at 70 mph and the pressure is 988, and Gustav should be a hurricane again possibly within the hour.

There are no decisions yet on evacuating New Orleans or other surrounding parishes, and the LSU game, for now is still going on schedule. Evacuations could still start as early as Saturday afternoon, and contraflow could start Sunday. This is mainly due to the fact that now it seems if the track still has Gustav headed towards NOLA or just west, it won't be until Tuesday morning, probably as a Category 3. My trip to New Orleans next week however is already cancelled.

TD-8 formed as well this morning, and it could be Hanna within the next hour. Right now the storm is pointed towards Palm Beach, however within 5 days from now (next Tuesday morning) it would still be only as close as eastern Bahamas.

Today is the start of football season, and I'm headed to the Georgia Tech v. Jacksonville State game, which should be exciting in that Ryan_Perrilloux, formerly of LSU, will be the starting QB for the JSU Gamecocks and GT is unveiling its brand new offense. Also, the Gameday tents are all set up in the middle of Centennial Olympic Park for the big Alabama v. Clemson game at the Georgia Dome on Saturday. I'm nervous for our (Virginia) game against Southern California in Charlottesville, but figure it's a win-win...either we lose big and it's as expected, or we win and our stock goes way up.

More updates through the day.

11 AM UPDATE: Gustav is still at 70 mph but could become a hurricane at any time. The track has settled out to hitting Houma/Lafourche Parish, Louisiana on Tuesday as a Category 3. Hannah has also been named, and is still headed towards Florida.

Fay is finally a thing of the past as the last advisory has been issued on her. She moved from North Jackson County, Alabama, through Niota, Tennessee, near Exit 56 of I-75, up past the Cumberland Gap at the VA/TN/KY border, and at 5 AM was located near Williamsport, Kentucky in Johnson County. Here is her path.

No update on evacuations yet, but those plans are all ready to go at any minute.

Also, John McCain will announce his VP selection today or tomorrow...I hope it's Romney.

Gustav could be dangerous...my trip to NOLA next week could be cancelled.

Gustav is south of Cuba is and is heading apparently straight for New Orleans. Within the next 5 days (by Monday afternoon), the storm could have made landfall anywhere from Port Arthur, Texas to Punta Gorda, Florida, although the models seem in good agreement that NOLA is the target.

Plans are in place to start evacuating coastal Parishes by Friday morning, and contraflow could start as early as Saturday afternoon (which could make coming back from the LSU game in Baton Rouge on Saturday tricky with no eastbound lanes on I-10).

I'm supposed to be headed to New Orleans on Tuesday, however that trip looks in jeopardy. We'll see what happens. I'm not going to get stuck in a city below sea level, especially if the levees don't hold up! In any event I'm listening to WWL to get the latest.

The Louisiana delegates have left the Democratic National Convention, and Mayor Nagin is on his way home.

This is all coming on the heels of the 3rd anniversary of Katrina on Friday, and comes on a Labor Day weekend. We were SUPPOSED to go to Sandestin, Florida next week, but I can't imagine that is going to happen either!

Gustav strengthens, Fay still making rain, potential Hanna, Ike and Josephines?

Fay is now just west of Tuscaloosa and the University of Alabama. She has moved up from Meridian in the last 12 hours. Thomasville, Georgia has gotten 27.5" of rain from this storm, and Lake Lanier, Atlanta's water supply, has gotten 3.41" so far, but probably more with this morning's storms.

Gustav is now a strong Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph and 981 mb. He is expected to keep strengthening, especially before he makes landfall in Haiti today. In 5 days he is expected to be just west of the tip of Cuba as at least a Category 3, or a major hurricane. Everywhere from the entire Mexican Yucatan peninsula to the southern coast of Miami Dade and the Keys is in the cone of uncertainty by Saturday night/Sunday morning. As of right now, New Orleans is the most likely target.

In addition, there are at least 3 other potential waves out there, two of which with a moderate potential to form, that could turn into Hanna, Ike and Josephine. It's the beginning of the height of hurricane season!

In Atlanta metro, a tornado warning was posted during the morning rush hour for the entire city limits. Nothing was spotted, although the storm was located right over our house in NW Atlanta. Yikes. Things have cleared up a bit, but more rain is on the way and we're under a Tornado Watch until 7 PM this evening.

11:45 AM UPDATE: Gustav is about the same, but the track is going farther westbound and is still heading for New Orleans (listen to WWL for more details). Fay has now moved towards Courtland in Lawrence County, west of Huntsville. We're not getting rain now, but should get more this afternoon.

Fay on the Nature Coast, headed to New Orleans

Fay has been moving at a decent clip finally. As of 8 PM yesterday she was back out in the Gulf, west of Keaton Beach and south of the Taylor/Jefferson county line. By 11, she had moved due south of Saint Marks and Wakulla County. At the 2 AM she was in the Saint George Sound after crossing Dog Island, and shortly after made landfall just southwest of Carabelle in Franklin County. At 5, she had almost crossed Franklin County. At 8, she had crossed the time zone line and was near Port Saint Joe in Gulf County.

At 5 PM yesterday, all warnings for the Atlantic Coast were discontinued. At 11 PM, Warnings for Hernando, Citrus and Levy Counties were discontinued in the big bend area. In addition, the Watch for western Okaloosa, Santa Rosa & Escambia Counties in Florida and Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama switched to a Warning. Also, a new Watch was posted for Jackson, Harrison & Hancock Counties in Mississippi, and Saint Tammany, Saint Bernard & eastern Plaquemines Parishes for Louisiana. At 5 AM this morning, the warning was extended to cover the Mississippi coastal counties above, and a Watch was extended to include Lake Ponchartrain and metro New Orleans, including the Parishes of Jefferson, western Plaquemines, Orleans, Saint Charles, Saint John the Baptist, Livingston and Tangipahoa.

As evidenced by the watches and warnings, Fay is expected to scrape the coast and maintain tropical storm status. Scary however, is the fact that after 48 hours, the models conflict in where she will go, and she may actually do a loop over New Orleans, which would bring unwelcome rain and possibly some flooding. We can only wait and see.

In Atlanta we are getting gusty winds but no rain at all. Meanwhile Macon, who does not really need the rain that bad, is getting socked!

It'll be a long day of watching the Olympics today as tomorrow is the Closings!

NOON UPDATE: Fay is currently in the East Bay south of Callaway and east of Tyndall Air Force Base in the Panama City area. Winds are near 45 mph, pressure is at 998 mb, and although some fluctuations could occur, it's not expected to get a lot stronger or weaker.

2 PM UPDATE: Fay is now over Walton County, near Bruce.

Fay finally moving

Fay is FINALLY moving, and although she's weakened a bit, down to 45 mph with the pressure up to 996, it's not as much as expected, and it's not expected that she'll lose Tropical Storm status as she crosses over Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for Hernando, Citrus, Levy, Dixie, Taylor, Jefferson, Wakulla and Franklin Counties on the Gulf, and the Tropical Storm Warning for the Atlantic remains the same except it has been cancelled for Indian River and northern Saint Lucie Counties. A new Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for Gulf, Bay, Walton & eastern Okaloosa Counties, which includes Panama City & Destin (including where we're going next month, Sandestin).

The storm has traversed across Florida, starting near Ormand Beach at 11 PM last night, heading through Lake Disston, Marion County near Kerr City, Rochelle near the intersection of FL 20 & 325 in Alachua, and finally near Exit 384, Old Archer Road off of I-75, right by the University of Florida campus (and as a result, rush has been cancelled for today...haha).

Landfalls appear to be coming for Saint George Island and then the Florida/Alabama border. Although if it goes a bit to the south, we could have a tropical storm hitting New Orleans Sunday night into Monday morning.

News stations to watch: For Panama City, NBC/WJHG (wjhg.com), ABC/WMBB (wmbb.com) & CBS/WTVY (out of Dothan, wtvynews4.com). For Mobile/Pensacola, NBC/WPMI (nbc15online.com), ABC/WEAR (weartv.com), & CBS/WKRG (wkrg.com).

11 AM UPDATE: Fay has moved into Gilchrist County, still as a Tropical Storm. She's about 6 hours or 36 miles from the Gulf but should be able to retain her Storm status. Tropical Storm Warnings for Volusia & Brevard Counties on the Atlantic have been dropped (Warnings to the GA/SC line remain), a Warning has been posted for Gulf, Bay, Walton & eastern Okaloosa Counties, and a new Watch has been posted for western Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Escambia Counties in Florida, and Baldwin & Mobile Counties in Alabama (to the Alabama/Mississippi line).

I also forgot to mention that there are 2 very good candidates out there for Gustav and Hanna, either of which could be a dangerous storm!

5 PM UPDATE: Fay is barely hanging on as a tropical storm but is almost over water. Now she's at the Lafayette county line in Dixie County, near the intersection of US 19/27 and FL-51. She's expected to exit between Steinhatchee & Keaton Beach, roughly due east of Saint George's Island.

No idea what Fay will do at this point!

Fay is currently at 50 mph with a pressure of 995, up from 994 at 8 AM. She is currently stationed, and hardly moving, over Merritt Island, between Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center, and is dumping torrential amounts of rain on the Space and Treasure Coasts.

The forecasts call for her to move just barely into the Atlantic over the next 12 hours, then come back over Florida, where she will weaken again. She could emerge into the Gulf, become a strong hurricane and threaten New Orleans, or she could stay over the Panhandle and bring a bunch of rain to those areas. Who knows?

All Hurricane Watches have been dropped, and the Tropical Storm Warning south of Fort Pierce has also been dropped. This leaves the followin in a Warning: northern Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard, Volusia, Flagler, Nassau and Duval in Florida, and Camden and Glynn in Georgia. The Tropical Storm Watch up to the Georgia/South Carolina line remains.

All this Olympic watching has made me tired! I can't wait to start getting some sleep! Well, that is at least after I catch up on my non-Olympic DVR shows!

Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in The Gulf

Subtropical Depression 10 formed in the Gulf as of the 11/10 Central Advisory. The winds are low, but it could become Jerry late tonight or early tomorrow. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the Mouth of the Mississippi over to Apalachicola, Florida, including the following Parishes (LA) and Counties (MS, AL & FL):

LOUISIANA: Plaquemines, St. Bernard, and for areas around Lake Ponchartrain including Orleans, Jefferson, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, Tangipahoa & St. Tammany.
MISSISSIPPI: Hancock, Harrison & Jackson
ALABAMA: Mobile & Baldwin
FLORIDA: Escambia, Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, Gulf & far western Franklin
Here is a map of the approximate area.

The Louisiana governor is already ordering evacuations for those in FEMA trailers and for those in areas prone to flooding. No other evacuations at this time but everyone is on alert. The most likely scenario is that the storm makes landfall tomorrow early afternoon around Biloxi, Misssissippi.

More updates as they occur.

On a drought note, Cobb & Paulding Counties, and the city of Mountain Park in extreme north Fulton Counties, has now banned all outdoor watering. Before those places were on a 3 mornings/week ban. Douglas, Carroll, Oconee, Clarke, Barrow and Jackson in the metro area have already banned outdoor watering. I hope that Fulton/City of Atlanta sticks to the 1 morning a week. I kind of expected them to loosen the ban with fall coming, but with the drought still in the worst category, not much rain, and a possibly rain free winter due to La Nina, I'm not that surprised.

Another week of football and the potential Jerry

First the tropics: The low pressure system is emerging off the Gulf Coast near Tampa, and could become Jerry as early as today. Most likely at this point, the storm will hit Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana sometime early this weekend. This is not good news for that low-lying, Katrina-ravaged Parish. Here is an article from the Times-Picayune, but only time will tell. Looks like Atlanta could get some rain from this, but it's too early to tell (by the way, Atlanta is still in an "exceptional" drought, although Georgia in total is getting just a bit better. However, Tennessee is getting worse, with nearly half the state in an "exceptional" drought). More to come obviously today.

Also, College football starts up again tonight, with A&M at Miami and Western Kentucky (ESPN) v. Middle Tennessee (CSS). I can't wait. Tomorrow night is Oklahoma/Tulsa and then Saturday is a long day. Go HOOS! BEAT GEORGIA TECH! History is on our side, as it's been a really long time since Georgia Tech beat us at home.

Finally I'm very excited because I downloaded a bunch of new songs in my IPOD, including Loving County (Charlie Robison), The Road Goes On Forever (Robert Earl Keen), Tear it Down (Old Crow Medicine Show), and Wagon Wheel (also OCMS). I have to run 5 miles for training today, and those will get me through, no doubt.

More tropical updates as they happen....

Tropical Storm to Hit New Orleans or Texas this weekend?

A low pressure center near Palm Beach, Florida is currently on track to become the next Jerry. The hurricane hunters are getting ready to start investigating this system soon. As of right now the track has shifted from Brownsville to NOLA, and now is confined to about Houston to Pensacola. Either the storm will go over the Loop Current and explode, a la Wilma, Katrina and Rita, or will go further west, and have plenty of time to organize over the warm Gulf of Mexico. Everyone on the Gulf should keep an eye on this one.

There are a few other little things in the Atlantic basin, but none imminent at this point.

One thing I can't figure out, where is Bob King of the Palm Beach Post? He is usually a good source of information but hasn't posted on his blog since 9/11.

I do know where Jim Cantore is however: Atlantic Beach, near Jacksonville. He's reporting on the heavy flooding and up to 8" of rain that JAX got due to the potential Jerry.

Finally, I watched K-ville last night (the dash is supposed to be a fleur de lis but my non-Louisianan keyboard doesn't have one of those :). It was actually pretty good. Many local New Orleanians are complaining about inconsistencies (such as "Gumbo Parties" or car chases at high speeds from the French Quarter to the Westbank being an impossibility due to the long distance and/or potholes, but since I'm not from there, I didn't notice. I didn't think the name "Rex duBois" was too out of line, maybe a little but not much (he's the father of a debutante socialite). I thought the best part was the main character finding out his new partner was a native New Orleanian (from NOLA East) due to the fact he can pronounce street names, get around without street signs (which apparently criminals steal to confuse cops), and because he says "neutral ground".

Since none of my usual teams are in playoffs...

GO SAINTS!

National Championship and Mardi Gras/New Orleans

This article echos my sentiments about Florida winning the National Title game even though I'm not a Bulldog. This would ring especially true had Florida State played & won (as they did in 1999).

UVa plays UNC tonight in basketball at 9 PM. This will be tough, especially considering that UNC just captured the #1 ranking. You never know though, but it will be in Chapel Hill which makes it worse (p.s. have you seen those funny commericals filmed @ UNC where they keep knocking the Duke guy?).

Good song to remind us to step back once in a while...
Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On - Jimmy Buffett
I bought a cheap watch from the crazy man
Floating down Canal
It doesnt use numbers or moving hands
It always just says "now"
Now you may be thinking that I was had
But this watch is never wrong
And if I had trouble the warranty said:
Breathe in, breathe out, move on

(Chorus)
And it rained
It was nothing really new
And it blew
Seen all that before
And it poured
The earth began to strain
Pontchartrain leaking through the door, tides at war

If a hurricane doesnt leave you dead
It will make you strong
Dont try to explain it just nod your head
Breathe in, breathe out, move on

And it rained
It was nothing really new
And it blew
Seen all that before
And it poured
The earth began to strain
Pontchartrain buried the 9th ward to the 2nd floor

According to my watch, the time is now
The past is dead and gone
Don't try to shake it, just nod your head
Breathe in, breathe out, move on
Dont try to explain it, just bow your head
Breathe in, Breathe Out, Move on....