Football, Elections and Weather

In terms of football, the Texas Longhorns are #1 in the country yet again. They have a big matchup in Lubbock this weekend against Texas Tech, who I am still upset at for ripping my heart out on New Year's Day this year. Gameday will also be there.

UVa had a huge win this weekend, on the road in Atlanta, beating nerds from Georgia Tech by a touchdown. We are in the "also receiving votes" tally now, and could move up if we beat our homecoming opponent, Miami (who schedules these things??!). If you remember, last year we beat Miami 48-0 in the last game ever to be played in the Orange Bowl. Right now we're riding a 4 game win streak and in sole possession of 1st place in the Coastal Division of the ACC.

The election is also next Tuesday, and despite everyone's best efforts, it looks like we won't be putting two Mavericks in the White House, and instead voting in a Socalist. Tonight Barack had a sickening self-serving ad that ran for 30 minutes on the major networks plus some cable channels just before the World Series game 5 (which was postponed from Monday because of rain, snow, wind & cold) resumed in the 6th inning. Well, us Republicans can at least emulate the Democrats in critizing every move Obama makes. I thought about going to the polls early, however with so many people voting early, it appears that election day actually won't be that bad (let's hope!).

Finally, it's gotten really cold all of the sudden here in Atlanta (and the rest of the east). I don't know if we've officially had our first freeze, but temperatures have been in the 30's on multiple occasions, and with the winds, the days haven't been much better. The orange & blue pansies are in, and the grass is growing quite well, and will be cut for the first time on Saturday once I get my mower back (and I got my 10 week exemption which lasts through Christmas to water that grass!). Kentucky had some flurries, and some parts of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania have actually gotten some decent snow!

Houston/Galveston still a mess but the tropics are quiet.

Ike finally dissipated on Sunday night near Orilla, Ontario, Canada, which is due north of Toronto and Buffalo. However, after hitting Galveston Island with 110 mph sustained winds and a huge storm surge more like a Category 4, it flew up through Oklahoma and Missouri, but not before leaving 15.75" of rain in Houston and blowing 75 mph gusts in Louisville (incidentally every house in Anchorage, Kentucky, a suburb had damage to some degree).

Nothing on the tropical front for now, but 49 days until the election!

Ike update & Hanna Recap

Ike made landfall as a Category 2 at downtown Galveston at 3:20 AM EDT. It then moved up to San Leon, Texas, at the Chambers/Galveston line in Galveston Bay. Then it moved up to Morgans Point/Baytown, at the mouth of the San Jacinto River on the north end of Galveston Island. By 6 AM EDT it was in Crosby, then went up to Huffman, Texas in far eastern Harris County. By 8 AM it was in Conroe, near Cut & Shoot in Montgomery County, and then by 11 AM had moved up to Trinity, Texas in Trinity County, still as a Category 1.

Since I didn't get to it last week, Hanna made landfall last Saturday, 9/6, at the North Carolina/South Carolina border as a strong tropical storm. Then by 5 AM it was in Council (Bladen County), NC. 8 AM: Kenly, NC in Wilson County at exit 107 of I-95. By 11 AM it was in Greenville County, Virginia near Skippers. By 2 PM it was in Saluda, Virginia in Middlesex County, Virginia, near Deltaville. By 5 PM it has moved across the Chespeake Bay to Dorchester County, Maryland, near Vienna, Maryland and the SW corner of Delaware. By 8 PM it had strengthened some and was near Egg Harbor City (Atlantic County), New Jersey. By 11 PM it was in the Atlantic, just south of West Islip, New York Long Island, south of the Suffolk/Nassau county lines. By 2 AM, it was at Jewett City (New London County), Connecticut, near the border with Rhode Island. The last advisory was issued at 5 AM Sunday when it was off the coast of Rockport/Gloucester/Essex County, Massachusetts, where it was becoming extratropical.

New watches and warnings, Ike's pressure drops

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia, Saint Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson, Plaquemines, Assumption, Ascension, Livingston, St. Bernard, Orleans, St. Charles, St. James, St. John the Baptist, St. Tammany and Tangipahoa Parish, and Hancock, Harrison & Jackson Counties in Mississippi.

The Hurricane Watch is still the same.

Most likely track now is making landfall as a 4 around Freeport, Texas, which would basically be worst case scenario for Houston.

Today is 9/11...MSNBC is showing the Today Show from that day. Creepy.

Gustav, possible Hanna and football season

Gustav update: The tracks for Gustav are a mess because unexpectedly, Gustav jogged south this morning and is now expected to go around the southern coast of Jamaica instead of the northern coast. New models are being run now, but basically the model tracks mean nothing. However "officially" the track has it possibly making or having made landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Panama City. Winds are at 70 mph and the pressure is 988, and Gustav should be a hurricane again possibly within the hour.

There are no decisions yet on evacuating New Orleans or other surrounding parishes, and the LSU game, for now is still going on schedule. Evacuations could still start as early as Saturday afternoon, and contraflow could start Sunday. This is mainly due to the fact that now it seems if the track still has Gustav headed towards NOLA or just west, it won't be until Tuesday morning, probably as a Category 3. My trip to New Orleans next week however is already cancelled.

TD-8 formed as well this morning, and it could be Hanna within the next hour. Right now the storm is pointed towards Palm Beach, however within 5 days from now (next Tuesday morning) it would still be only as close as eastern Bahamas.

Today is the start of football season, and I'm headed to the Georgia Tech v. Jacksonville State game, which should be exciting in that Ryan_Perrilloux, formerly of LSU, will be the starting QB for the JSU Gamecocks and GT is unveiling its brand new offense. Also, the Gameday tents are all set up in the middle of Centennial Olympic Park for the big Alabama v. Clemson game at the Georgia Dome on Saturday. I'm nervous for our (Virginia) game against Southern California in Charlottesville, but figure it's a win-win...either we lose big and it's as expected, or we win and our stock goes way up.

More updates through the day.

11 AM UPDATE: Gustav is still at 70 mph but could become a hurricane at any time. The track has settled out to hitting Houma/Lafourche Parish, Louisiana on Tuesday as a Category 3. Hannah has also been named, and is still headed towards Florida.

Fay is finally a thing of the past as the last advisory has been issued on her. She moved from North Jackson County, Alabama, through Niota, Tennessee, near Exit 56 of I-75, up past the Cumberland Gap at the VA/TN/KY border, and at 5 AM was located near Williamsport, Kentucky in Johnson County. Here is her path.

No update on evacuations yet, but those plans are all ready to go at any minute.

Also, John McCain will announce his VP selection today or tomorrow...I hope it's Romney.

Hurricanes, Drought & the Olympics

Edouard finally dissipated near Benjamin, Texas in Knox County, loosely near Wichita Falls. The last statement was put out last night at 11 PM EDT.

There is another system trying to brew over the Bahamas, but conditions are not favorable and it does not look like this will be our next system.

The new drought maps are out and the drought in both Georgia and Texas is about the same. Georgia really does need a landfalling system somewhere along the Florida panhandle!!!

Finally, it's less than 23 hours now until the Opening Ceremonies begins. I wonder how the Today show will work tomorrow if Matt is doing the Opening Ceremonies (which will be on tape delay) while Meredith is live on the Today show?? I guess we shall see.

Edouard near Waco, Olympics less than 48 hours away!

What is left of Edouard has made a slow 200 mile treck up to Central Texas to Clifton, Texas in Bosque (pronounced BAAS-key) County. As of 2 AM EDT, it was near Franklin, in Robertson County (NW of Bryan/College Station). Unfortunately, it completely missed all the severe drought-stricken areas between Houston, Austin & San Antonio.

Coming up, there is a possibility of something forming by the weekend off the coast of Florida. It is also about a week until the season really ramps up.

As of 9:08 this morning eastern time, there are only 47 hours until the Opening Ceremonies of the Olympics Start!

UPDATE: The remnants of Edouard are now in Hood County, near Tolar & Granbury, Texas, near the Erath County line. That puts it loosely in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex.

45 hours!

5 PM EDT UPDATE: The remnants of Edouard are now in Stephens County, over the Hubbard Creek Reservoir near Breckenridge, Texas, which is loosely in the Abilene area, about halfway between Abilene and Fort Worth. The Hydrometerological folks say they're going to keep issuing updates though, at least up to 11 PM tonight.

39 hours!

Edouard makes landfall

Edouard has just recently made landfall in Jefferson County, Texas, between High Island, Texas and Sabine Pass, LA/TX. Winds are at 65 mph, which makes this a fairly strong tropical storm. The storm was limited by the fact it turned earlier than normal so it did not have that much time over water. This was in lieu of the forecast which had it making its way into Galveston Bay and into downtown Houston. Houston should still feel the effects later today but the storm should be weaker by that point.

Tropical Storm Warnings still remain, but they are condensed. Now, they cover Jefferson, Lafourche, Terrebonne, St. Mary, Iberia, Vermilion, & Cameron Parishes in Louisiana, and Jefferson, Orange, Chambers, Galveston, Harris, Liberty & Brazoria Counties in Texas.

Hurricane Watches include all those areas except for Iberia, St. Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche & Jefferson Parishes, however those are likely to get dropped at the 11 AM EDT/10 AM CDT advisory.

Tropical Storm winds have affected the coast all the way from Terrebonne Parish to about Gilchrist, on the Bolivar Peninsula. Limited evacuations are in effect in Cameron & Vermilion Parishes for the lower-lying areas, and there is a voluntary evacuation for the Port Arthur neighborhood of Sabine Pass, Texas.

Matt Lauer was in the Forbidden City today. 3 days!

11 AM UPDATE: The storm is now in Liberty County, right at the Liberty/Chambers line just north of Hankamer. Incidentally, I-10 is closed between Exits 812 & 813 (yes I-10 is THAT long in TX), near Hankamer & Anahuac along Texas Route 61. Winds are down to 60 mph.

The Hurricane Watches have been discontinued, and Tropical Storm Warnings east of Cameron, Louisiana (leaving only western Cameron Parish) and the one for Brazoria County has been discontinued.

2 PM UPDATE: The storm is down to 50 mph, but still a Tropical Storm. It is now located southeast of Dayton, Texas, still in Liberty County. The Tropical Storm Warnings are the same.

5 PM UPDATE: The storm is now a "Depression" with 35 mph winds, and it is located near Patton Village and Woodbranch in extreme eastern Montgomery County, near the intersection of US-59/Eastex Freeway and TX-242. Although the center is much less important now that it is disorganized, and more important is where the rain is hitting. However, the storm needs to track farther west and south to help the drought, as shown here.

Edouard update & Olympics

Well this morning they extended the Tropical Storm Warning to the Brazoria/Galveston County lines, and then extended it again all the way to Port O'Connor at the Calhoun/Brazoria line.

Winds are currently down to 45 mph, but the storm is getting its act together and so strengthening is expected, especially if it stays offshore and does not interact with land. Tropical Storm winds aren't currently on the coast of Louisiana, but this could change if the storm keeps forming.

This morning Matt Lauer was at the Great Wall of China in Badaling, China. He will be doing the Opening Ceremonies with Bob Costas on Friday for the first time. In addition, the newly updated Olympic website shows that the Opening Ceremonies will now begin TV coverage at 7:30 PM EDT instead of 8 PM (sorry tv tabloid fans!) and WXIA-HD will have coverage starting at 7 PM, I think with correspondents in Beijing...they were the flagship NBC station for the Atlanta games.

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Although Edouard has not strengthened, the pressure continues to drop (down to 1000 mb) and the tropical storm windfield continues to expand, to the point that the coast of Terrebonne Parish is experiencing tropical storm force winds at this point.

The storm is heading straight for the western coast of Galveston Bay, which means that the City of Houston will feel the brunt of whatever comes, being either in the eyewall (if one forms) or the right front quadrant of the storm/hurricane. Landfall will probably be sometime around 1 PM CDT on Tuesday.

Edouard forms, heading for Galveston and Houston

Surprise, TD-5 formed today at 5 EDT, and by 6 PM EDT, it was Tropical Storm Edouard. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the Louisiana Parishes of Iberia, St. Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson, and Plaquemines up to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tropical Storm Watches are up for Vermilion & Cameron Parishes in Louisiana and Jefferson, Chambers, Galveston, Liberty, Harris, Brazoria & Matagorda Counties in Texas (which includes the Houston metro area and the Golden Triangle).

Winds are up to 50 mph, and the storm is small but strengthening. It could very possibly be a hurricane when it hits Galveston and Houston metro on Tuesday morning.

AND....as I write this, the Tropical Storm Watch has been dropped....now replaced with a Hurricane Watch.

Although the thunderstorm activity in the center has diminished, that trend will probably not continue...basically at this point it's anyone's guess what happens!

Dolly wrap up, all else quiet

Dolly is done, and the last advisory was written about her as she was at the Oklahoma/Texas/New Mexico border in Union County, NM. After passing across the border north of Laredo, she ventured south of the Big Bend, and then ventured north, causing flooding in Ruidoso and ending up in NE NM. San Manuel, Hidalgo County, Texas (Valley area) was the big winner with 12" of rain.

All else is quiet on the tropical front, except that there is a storm about to crash into China. I don't think this will affect next week's Olympics yet (I can't believe I can say "next week"!).

This weekend was spent at Lake Hartwell doing a lot of nothing. Although it was a bit overcast it was actually nice because it was not so hot and we still got sun and water time. The lake was LOW though...scary.

Dolly still deep in the heart of Texas

As of 7 PM CDT, Dolly has moved to the northwest corner of Jim Hogg County, where it intersects with Zapata County and Webb County (Laredo). Winds are down to 50 mph, which makes it still a pretty decent Tropical Storm, despite the fact it's been over land for at least 18 hours (very long lived for a tropical system over land!).

Damage is in the form of roofs blown off and structural damage on South Padre, and flooding mainly in Harlingen and points near that area. The system is supposed to keep dropping lots of rain, up to 20" in spots, which is somewhat unfortunate because that area of Texas does not need rain, while spots a 100 or so miles up desparately needs rain!

There is another area to watch in the Atlantic, although it is in no eminent danger of forming.

We are still in a drought even though we got some rain. Speaking of droughts, I'm going to up to Lake Hartwell this weekend, and Asheville next weekend, both places which are in "Exceptional"/D4 droughts. It should still be fun though!

UPDATE: Dolly has traversed from east of Laredo to North of Laredo (north of the Camino Columbia Road and about 1/2 way between Laredo & the Maverick County line), and is still barely a tropical storm. Tornadoes are breaking out in San Antonio and Bexar County however, but it is too early to determine damage extents.

Dolly comes ashore as a Category 2

Dolly came ashore at about 1 PM CDT/2 PM EDT as a Category 2 storm, just north of the town of South Padre Island, Texas. It is heading now between Harlingen and Raymondville, and basically is headed in this direction.

Dolly is now back to a Category 1 storm, but she definitely left damage. Surprisingly the winds picked up to 100 mph and the pressure dropped to about 967 mb just before landfall, which is a bad scenario, especially since yesterday it was only a tropical storm and people weren't taking this too seriously. Damage assessments aren't in yet, however the Bahia Mar hotel in South Padre apparently has extensive damage, and rainfall could be as much as 10" in some areas.

Storms this far south are fairly rare, and only 6 have hit within the vicinity of South Padre. The most notable is Beulah who was a Category 5, but a weakening Category 3 storm when it made landfall in almost the same area as Beulah.

UPDATE: The 4PM CDT update has an 85 mph Cat 1 Dolly on the Kenedy/Willacy County line (which is fortunately a very unpopulated area). The storm is still bad in the Valley, but the eyewall is not hitting a populated area. The Hurricane Warning from the Kenedy/Kleburg county line up to Corpus is discontinued, replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning. The Mexican government has also discontinued the Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning south of San Fernando.

If you're interested, you can watch live streaming coverage on KGBT online. (And as a personal note, I sent an e-mail saying I was watching from Atlanta and they read my e-mail on the air!

EVENING UPDATE: Dolly has now entered Hidalgo County, just where it meets up with Willacy & Kenedy Counties. It is temporarily still at Cat 1 with 75 mph winds.

Dolly on course to hit south Texas tomorrow

Dolly has gotten a little stronger, and could be a hurricane as soon as the 10 AM CDT/11 AM EDT update. It's likely to hit land as a high Cat 1 or low Cat 2, but almost definitely not a Cat 3. Landfall looks to be somewhere right on the Texas/Mexico border, which is bad for south Texas, as that puts the entire 408,000 folks in the Brownsville/Harlingen metro area of the Valley in the right front quadrant, which is the worst part of the storm.

Hurricane Watches have turned into Hurricane Warnings, and Tropical Storm Watches have turned into Tropical Storm Warnings. The only difference is that the Mexican government has also issued a Hurricane Watch for the areas also covered by the Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane could strike as early as tomorrow morning and could bring tropical storm winds as far inland as Laredo, Texas, which is 150 miles from the coast, due east of Corpus.

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore is currently in Port Aransas, a beach town connected by ferry to Corpus.

Cristobal is heading out to see and probably won't touch any more land, but may bring some bad weather to Nova Scotia briefly. The next storm is trying to form off the coast of Africa, however it came off the coast a lot farther north than normal so it is having trouble due to the lower water temperatures in the area.

UPDATE: Since we last left off, TS Dolly is now Hurricane Dolly, with winds just above the treshold at 75 mph. It is forecast to make landfall right at the Texas state line, probably as a strong (< 95 mph) hurricane. The Hurricane Warnings from Corpus to Port O'Connor have been dropped, but have been replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning (which goes all the way to the Galveston/Brazoria County line. Reynolds Wolf from CNN is down at South Padre giving updates (not sure if it's in HD, but I'll find out since my gym doesn't have HD yet).

In other news, the blob in the Atlantic still has not formed but looks favorable to do so. The national weather map looks like a kid's crayon drawing, including the Atlanta area, which is under a Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM this evening. So far no rain yet though, at least north of downtown. There are currently storms however to the north and east of us.

Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly (and Edouard?)

Bertha is finally gone, after surviving nearly 18 days, 7.75 of which of those were as a Hurricane. She broke all kinds of records, but didn't do that much damage except scaring the folks in Bermuda a bit.

Cristobal formed on Saturday, and moved up the Carolina coast, from about Charleston up to where she is now, due east of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. Up until 11 PM last night, Tropical Storm Warnings had been posted for eastern Carteret, Hyde, Pamlico, Dare and Currituck County (up to the North Carolina/Virginia line), but those have since been dropped as Cristobal's TS winds are supposed to stay out to sea (and only briefly touched Cape Lookout) in Carteret County). There is a chance the storm could make landfall in southern Nova Scotia near Yarmouth by Tuesday afternoon, and move past Halifax that night as a Tropical Storm, although it's a bit too early to tell. Cristobal would then move past St. John's, Newfoundland, by midnight Wednesday night.

Dolly is more troubling. As of 7 AM CDT (8 AM EDT), Currently the storm is just just off the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. She was supposed to stay over land longer, but just grazed this landmass, and is now in the process of reforming in the warm Gulf waters. Currently estimates have landfall late Wednesday near South Padre Island, Texas, however, anywhere along this line is really in the path and needs to watch out. In fact if it hit near the northern end, near Victoria/Victoria County, it would not be AS bad because they really need the rain, and the area just north of there up through San Antonio and Austin is in a level D4 (or the worst kind) of drought. However, I'm leary about this forecast because these Gulf storms seem always to curve farther to the right than forecast (for instance see here starting around September 20 where they were calling for Rita to come ashore down near Matagorda Bay, and she ended up making landfall near Sabine Pass, Texas/Louisiana, some 200 miles to the east (and consequently aiming towards and then missing Texas altogether. We'll have to wait and see. The official intensity has it coming ashore as a Category 1, however with the new track more north (and less over land), it could range as high as a Category 2 or even 3 (major hurricane). Check out the latest forecasts for South Padre here calling for hurricane conditions on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Finally, there is not as of yet an Edouard, however there is a vigorous tropical wave just about to emerge off the coast of Africa. It is way to early to have any idea where this could end up, but if I were going to the Caribbean in the next week or so, I would keep an eye out.

More updates as the 11, 2 and 5 updates come in on Dolly.

UPDATE: Cristobal is now east of the VA/NC state line, and has winds of 65 mph, but should not strengthen and should start to lose tropical characteristics tomorrow.

Dolly: A Hurricane watch is now in effect from San Fernando, Mexico, up through the Mexican/US Border, and all the way up to Port O'Connor, including the cities of Brownsville and Corpus Christi. This is until further notice, and includes Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy, Kleburg, Nueces, Aransas, San Patricio, Refugio and Calhoun Counties. Further, a tropical storm watch is in effect from La Pesca, Mexico to San Fernando, and from Port O'Connor, Texas up to San Luis Pass. This includes Matagorda and Brazoria Counties, both being in the greater Houston metro, but does not include (yet) Galveston County/Island/City. No evacuations are planned as of yet, but officials are trying to decide what to do. It's looking like landfall sometime later on Wednesday.

Fourth of July Cancelled?

No, not really, but the City of Roswell is considering banning the annual 4th of July Fireworks display because of drought/fire conditions. I wonder if that will also mean the fire hydrants along Peachtree will not be turned on for the Peachtree Road Race?

In music news, I heard a song "Sugarland", by Sugarland, referring vaguely to a town in Texas called Sugar Land or incorrectly Sugarland. Although Sugarland the band is from Atlanta, the song talks about fields of bluebonnets, which is the state flower of Texas, and also talks about growing up in a small town. Sugar Land, in Fort Bend County, was a company town for Imperial Sugar, and was a small town until the 60's & 70's when it became an extremely affluent golf-course/planned/gated community location for Houston, which is 23 miles away, or roughly Roswell to Atlanta. I wonder if that'll be their next hit...I've never heard of a "self-titled" song so to speak...haha.

Finally, London unveiled its 2012 puzzle-piece logo and got the same reaction as Izzy from Atlanta 1996, which was in a two words, not good. Read more here.

Finally, this is a big weekend for sports: The St. Jude Classic in Memphis is today through Sunday, the French Open finals are 9-noon and 9-2 respectively on Saturday and Sunday in Eastern Daylight Time, and the Belmont Stakes (in which the Derby winner Street Sense will not be running, but the Preakness winner Curlin will be running) is on Saturday around 6 PM from Elmont, New York.

Back from the Big D (I actually do mean Dallas)

Trying to recover from our Dallas trip, but it sure was a lot of fun. Did the wedding thing in Grapevine/Irving and drank WAY too much the entire weekend and tried to catch some college hoops in between. Saturday night after the reception we went this place called the Glass Cactus, which is part of the Gaylord Texan Hotel. Although I've never been out in Vegas, it would seem to fit right in...bouncers everywhere, glass and weird lighting. It also overlooks Lake Grapevine which is really cool.

UVa lost in the 2nd round of the NCAA to Tennessee, although I'm not too upset because we played well and won handily on our first game. I guess I'll have to root for Carolina now!