Gustav, Hanna, Ike & Josephine??

Gustav is now a tropical depression, and the hurricane center has issued the last advisory on it. It made landfall as a Cat 2 just west of Cocodrie in Terrebonne Parish. It then moved through western Terrebonne, moved near the intersectino of Terrebonne, Saint Mary's and Assumption Parishes and then went up by Patterson and Morgan City in St. Mary's Parish. It then weakened to a Category 1, passing by Charenton in St. Mary's, up to Catahoula after moving through Iberia to St. Martin's Parish (the largest French-speaking area in the country), then went near the intersection of St. Landry/St. Martin/Lafayette, near Sunset & Grand Coteau. It then moved up to Evangeline Parish near Plattville. Finally it weakened to a tropical storm near Calcasieu in Rapides Parish, then moved to Vernon parish, near its intersection with Natchitoches & Rapides (near Temple). It was weakened to a Tropical Depression in Sabine Parish, near Marthasville on the Natchitoches Parish line.

Folks in NOLA can't go back in yet, but that evacuation order should be lifted by the end of the week. There was quite a bit of damage in Baton Rouge surprisingly because of the surprisingly northward turn it made, which includes the LSU campus. Hurricane winds hit all of south central Louisiana, including the NOLA metro area except for the north shore, which only got tropical storm winds. Those extended all the way from just east of Houston to Pensacola. Now there are tornadoes in Alabama, Florida and Mississippi.

As for Hanna, in the next three days, she could make landfall anywhere from Fort Lauderdale to Jacksonville. However, the 5-day cone includes the east coast from Fort Lauderdale all the way to the Maine/Nova Scotia border. Landfall is most likely around Charleston, South Carolina as a strong Category 2. Currently it's a strong tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and 987 mb.

For info on this storm, check out WSAV in Savannah, WITN in the Outer Banks, and WAVY TV in Hampton Roads.

On to Ike, in five days, Ike could be a strong Category 2 hurricane sitting in the Bahamas and aiming towards the Florida Straits and possibly the Gulf. There's no real chance of a US landfall by Sunday afternoon though.

Finally, Tropical Depression 10 formed this morning, and will most likely be Josephine by the 11 AM advisory. This could be a Category 1 by Sunday afternoon, however by then it will still only be in the middle of the Atlantic.

If you're wondering what's coming, Kyle, Laura and Marco are the next names on the list, however there are no other "trouble" areas to be concerned with right now. As for comparison, the last time there were 3 named systems was in 2005 with Maria, Nate and Ophelia. By Friday, all Hanna, Ike and Josephine could be all hurricanes at the same time. Also by comparison, in 2005 we were already on storm M - Maria.

Now the big question (especially since I'm obviously not going to my work trip in NOLA today...is where the heck do we go to the beach next week??!

11:45 UPDATE:
Gustav: He's now in Bossier Parish, near Taylortown and Elm Grove and has moved through Natchitoches and Red River parishes, 13 miles SE of Shreveport.

Hanna: This is now forecast to be a Category 1 by Friday noon. This is when she should make landfall around Charleston, although it could be anywhere from Miami to Hilton Head, or on the Gulf from Tampa to Saint Marks (panhandle). It's 70 mph with pressure of 987 (unchanged).

Ike: He should be a Cat 2 by Monday, or possibly even a 3. The winds are at 60 mph and the pressure is 1002. The track is the same and he should be upgraded to a Hurricane by tomorrow.

Josephine: Jo is official, and will still be a Tropical Storm likely by Monday. It may recurve out to sea but it's too early to know.

5 PM UPDATE: Hanna is treking along and northern Florida, Georgia and southern South Carolina coastal communities are getting prepared just in case. Gustav is now in Caddo Parish just near Ida, right at the corner of Miller County, Arkansas & Cass County, Texas.

Gustav, Hanna & (Ike)

Gustav looks bad, but not horrific. It's planning to come in between Grande Isle and Cocodrie, and that's not good b/c Grande Isle, where Betsy made landfall in the 60's, is the worst possible place to land which puts NOLA in the dirty side of the storm. That's also worrisome because most storms tend to jog right just before landfall (think Edouard, Wilma, Katrina, Rita, Ivan, etc. etc.). However, the official cone of death still includes everywhere between Houston and the Mississippi/Louisiana border. It's a 3, but could strengthen to a 4 by the 5 PM EDT/4 PM CDT advisory, but will most likely (I think) make landfall as a weak 3 (which is STILL a bad storm).

Tropical Storm WARNINGS are in effect for Franklin, Gulf, Bay, Walton, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa & Escambia (Florida) Counties. Then a Hurricane WARNINGS are in effect for Baldwin & Mobile (Alabama) Counties, Jackson, Harrison & Hancock (Mississippi) Counties, and St. Tammany, Orleans, St. Bernard, Tangipahoa, Livingston, Ascension, St. James, St. John the Baptist, St. Charles, Lafourche, Terrebonne, Plaquemines, St. Mary, Iberia, Vermilion & eastern Cameron (Louisian) Parishes (this includes metro NOLA and Lake Pontchartrain). A Hurricane WATCH is up for western Cameron Parish, and Jefferson and Chambers Counties in Texas.

That is not all yet though. Tropical Storm Hanna is on track to strike the Atlantic Coast, possibly as a Category 3. The 5 day cone includes all of Florida except for Key West and areas west of Saint George Island in the Panhandle. It also includes areas of Georgia (coastal, southern and central), South Carolina, and North Carolina up to Surf City.

To keep up to date with Gustav: WWL.

Finally, Ike could form any minute, and could strike ANYWHERE, or NOWHERE (we won't know until it forms and we get a track!).

St. Charles & St. Bernard are starting evacuations

Scene in Baton Rouge:


St. Bernard and St. Charles are starting assisted evacuations, and may start (along with others) mandatory evacuations by tomorrow. Right now Gustav is leaving Jamaica, and could hit anywhere between Corpus Christi and Destin, Florida in the next five days. However, it is most likely to hit Houma around midnight Monday night. My flight on Delta is now in a situation where I can change it without penalty up until September 8. Lafourche has a mandatory evacuation by 3 PM tomorrow. The Saints will most likely be going to Indianapolis.

Hanna is also still out there, and is taking a weird hook south at the end of the 5 day track.

More updates to come...BTW though, if I had plans this weekend anywhere from the Louisiana/Texas border to Panama City, I would SERIOUSLY consider cancelling my plans. Good luck everyone.

11 AM UPDATE: Gustav is reorganizing after heading back over water, and now eastern Louisiana from Lafourche Parish all the way to the Mississippi/Louisiana border including New Orleans and all of Jefferson Parish is in the 3 day cone.

Also, John McCain's running mate will be Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Finally, if you're going to get gas, get it NOW, because gas is going to quickly rise with the threat of Gustav!

Here are the Contraflow maps for New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana. This will probably start tomorrow.

Gustav, possible Hanna and football season

Gustav update: The tracks for Gustav are a mess because unexpectedly, Gustav jogged south this morning and is now expected to go around the southern coast of Jamaica instead of the northern coast. New models are being run now, but basically the model tracks mean nothing. However "officially" the track has it possibly making or having made landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Panama City. Winds are at 70 mph and the pressure is 988, and Gustav should be a hurricane again possibly within the hour.

There are no decisions yet on evacuating New Orleans or other surrounding parishes, and the LSU game, for now is still going on schedule. Evacuations could still start as early as Saturday afternoon, and contraflow could start Sunday. This is mainly due to the fact that now it seems if the track still has Gustav headed towards NOLA or just west, it won't be until Tuesday morning, probably as a Category 3. My trip to New Orleans next week however is already cancelled.

TD-8 formed as well this morning, and it could be Hanna within the next hour. Right now the storm is pointed towards Palm Beach, however within 5 days from now (next Tuesday morning) it would still be only as close as eastern Bahamas.

Today is the start of football season, and I'm headed to the Georgia Tech v. Jacksonville State game, which should be exciting in that Ryan_Perrilloux, formerly of LSU, will be the starting QB for the JSU Gamecocks and GT is unveiling its brand new offense. Also, the Gameday tents are all set up in the middle of Centennial Olympic Park for the big Alabama v. Clemson game at the Georgia Dome on Saturday. I'm nervous for our (Virginia) game against Southern California in Charlottesville, but figure it's a win-win...either we lose big and it's as expected, or we win and our stock goes way up.

More updates through the day.

11 AM UPDATE: Gustav is still at 70 mph but could become a hurricane at any time. The track has settled out to hitting Houma/Lafourche Parish, Louisiana on Tuesday as a Category 3. Hannah has also been named, and is still headed towards Florida.

Fay is finally a thing of the past as the last advisory has been issued on her. She moved from North Jackson County, Alabama, through Niota, Tennessee, near Exit 56 of I-75, up past the Cumberland Gap at the VA/TN/KY border, and at 5 AM was located near Williamsport, Kentucky in Johnson County. Here is her path.

No update on evacuations yet, but those plans are all ready to go at any minute.

Also, John McCain will announce his VP selection today or tomorrow...I hope it's Romney.

Gustav could be dangerous...my trip to NOLA next week could be cancelled.

Gustav is south of Cuba is and is heading apparently straight for New Orleans. Within the next 5 days (by Monday afternoon), the storm could have made landfall anywhere from Port Arthur, Texas to Punta Gorda, Florida, although the models seem in good agreement that NOLA is the target.

Plans are in place to start evacuating coastal Parishes by Friday morning, and contraflow could start as early as Saturday afternoon (which could make coming back from the LSU game in Baton Rouge on Saturday tricky with no eastbound lanes on I-10).

I'm supposed to be headed to New Orleans on Tuesday, however that trip looks in jeopardy. We'll see what happens. I'm not going to get stuck in a city below sea level, especially if the levees don't hold up! In any event I'm listening to WWL to get the latest.

The Louisiana delegates have left the Democratic National Convention, and Mayor Nagin is on his way home.

This is all coming on the heels of the 3rd anniversary of Katrina on Friday, and comes on a Labor Day weekend. We were SUPPOSED to go to Sandestin, Florida next week, but I can't imagine that is going to happen either!

Edouard forms, heading for Galveston and Houston

Surprise, TD-5 formed today at 5 EDT, and by 6 PM EDT, it was Tropical Storm Edouard. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the Louisiana Parishes of Iberia, St. Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson, and Plaquemines up to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tropical Storm Watches are up for Vermilion & Cameron Parishes in Louisiana and Jefferson, Chambers, Galveston, Liberty, Harris, Brazoria & Matagorda Counties in Texas (which includes the Houston metro area and the Golden Triangle).

Winds are up to 50 mph, and the storm is small but strengthening. It could very possibly be a hurricane when it hits Galveston and Houston metro on Tuesday morning.

AND....as I write this, the Tropical Storm Watch has been dropped....now replaced with a Hurricane Watch.

Although the thunderstorm activity in the center has diminished, that trend will probably not continue...basically at this point it's anyone's guess what happens!

More snow for Atlanta, yet again???

It's snowed (and stuck here) three times...the Thursday & Saturday in January, and then last week after the strong storms (and the 25' long tree branch that fell on our roof).

Now it's looking more and more likely that snow could arrive tomorrow morning, maybe around 6 AM, with the best chance of snow showers from 9-noon. Here's the deal:

Right now many Dallas metroplex schools, including Carroll ISD in Southlake, are under 2 hour delays. Temperatures are below freezing NW of this line, including western Dallas & Dallas County, and all of Tarrant County (Fort Worth).

In Louisiana and SE Texas, snow can be expected down to a line near I-10 with possible snow showers as far south as Lake Charles, Louisiana.

In Mississippi, 1-2" of snow is expected for Jackson.

In Alabama, so far there is a Winter Storm Watch within 74 miles of my house in Atlanta...that is in Cherokee County, Alabama (Centre, Alabama). About 1" of snow is expected there.

In Georgia, there are Winter Storm Watches posted as close as 64 miles away in Gilmer County. The best chance of snow is north of this line. We shall see!

Finally, an episode of "When Weather Changed History" about the 1927 Louisiana flood is on Sunday at 9 PM. Should be very interesting.

UPDATE: A heavy snow warning has been issued for Cherokee County, Alabama and points west. In addition, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the majority of Alabama all the way down to Barbour County, Alabama (and points west), which is merely 50 miles from the Florida line. No weather update for Georgia as of yet.