Hurricane Season, Labor Day & Football

I'm almost off to the airport to go to Pittsburgh all weekend...should be fun & interesting.

Last night football season started with a bang...a 45-0 routing of Mississippi State at the hands of Louisiana State. Fun times. I went to watch w/LSU fans at a bar called Hi-Tops off of Buford Highway in DeKalb County.

Two systems may form today...the first is by the Windward Islands and looks strong but the Hurricane Hunters have to go out and confirm. After that warnings and watches may quickly appear. A second one is up in the Northeast, and may be named before it fizzles out.

Last, for your reading pleasure, A Love Letter to Southern Football.

Beginning of football season!!!

Geaux Tigers...I'm off in a few hours to watch LSU hopefully beat Mississippi State. How exciting. I think I'll get to test out my XM Radio in terms of college football listening as well if I'm a little late.

Also, the entire state of Wyoming is apparently gearing up for a ACC battle with us...who would have thought Virginia coming to town would cause such excitement! Hopefully not too much excitement as we really need to win, despite the oxygen depravation by being in one of the highest, if not the highest college stadium in the country.

Finally, nothing yet, but it seems like there will be a Felix at least by tomorrow afternoon. We shall soon see. There are about 5 areas of interest, but none has made the jump to TD yet

Katrinaversary and Upcoming Tropical Systems

Today is the Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, and just about everyone is doing stories about what happened two years ago this morning. I ended up having to go Savannah that day last minute for work but remember watching that night on television as the news started to come in. WWL is doing an especially good job of broadcasting, and they are streaming online (as they always do).

There are three areas of interest out in the Atlantic. One is around the Leeward Islands, and may be too disorganized right now, but they'll keep watching it. One is way out in the Atlantic and has some time to organize, and the Hurricane Hunters will look at it on Friday. The final one is off the coast of the Carolinas and the Hurricane Hunters are going out tomorrow. This last one may meander around in the Atlantic before figuring out what to do. In any event, we may have Felix, Gabrielle, and Humberto on our hands before too long.

Finally, a little over 24 hours until football season starts! Geaux Tigers!

Katrinaversary Eve and 2 days until football season!

Tomorrow is the anniversary of Katrina making landfall, and the news stations once again are down in full force in NOLA and the coast of Mississippi. I wonder if there is any "new" news, or if they will just rehash old stuff (ex. pictures of the humanity at the Superdome and pictures of the 9th Ward).

Also, football season starts in 2 days! ESPN2 starts things off with a pre-game show at 6:30 EDT, with Tulsa/University of Louisiana Monroe at 6:55, then LSU/Mississippi State at 8 on ESPN. SO excited. I can't wait to watch while I pack for Pittsburgh!!

Finally, Ms. Teen South Carolina is the talk of the town for her stupid remarks...check out the video. She STILL came in 3rd runner-up though!


Nothing eminent in hurricane land, although we could get a depression by the end of the week. I wonder if Dean was the big storm, or if the U.S. needs to brace for something stronger. The peak of the season is right around 9/11.

Drought getting worse...parts of 7 states in "Exceptional" Drought

The new drought maps came out today, as they do every Thursday. 39% of Georgia, including basically the entire Atlanta metro area, the North Georgia mountains and SW Georgia are in the worst category of drought. In addition, 74% of Alabama, a big chunk of central Tennessee, and parts of western NC, NW SC, NE Mississippi, and part of Jefferson County, Florida are also in dire straits. No end seems in sight, unless this tropical wave floats up our way, but that's looking doubtful. Yesterday was at least 101 here, and today could reach 100 again. That's not helping my grass which is turning brown by about Tuesday, even after I water to the extent of the restrictions on Sunday morning. The worst part is around our 50 year old pecan tree which just soaks up all the water. Oh well, what can you do? Hopefully we'll get decent rain before we go to Pittsburgh, since we can't water that much while we're gone.

Nothing in tropical land of note.

Cool website if you're a fan of Cincinnati food: Cincy Favorites.

Dean's last gasp, zip codes and heat

1) Dean is now a strong Cat 2, with winds of 100 MPH (110 would bring it up to a Major Cat 3). It probably won't strengthen any more until landfall, but will still do some damage. It is forecast to strike near Tuxpan, Mexico in Veracruz.

2) No other hurricane threats are out there, and it should be a quiet week in the tropics, which is a little surprising since it's almost the height of the season. Felix will have to wait.

3) I saw a bumper sticker recently saying "30307: It's not just a zip code, it's a lifestyle". This is an area with older, but very well maintained homes, a little bohemian, and very neighborhood oriented. It's just east of downtown Atlanta, straddling Fulton & DeKalb Counties. I also found this article in the New York Times about splitting up the exclusive 10021 zip code into 10021, 10065 and 10075. It's somewhat tongue and cheek, but I remember when my parents lived in Symmes Township, Ohio (near Cincinnati) some of the neighbors were mad and tried to change the zip code from 45140, which is Loveland, Ohio, to 45242, which is a Cincinnati/Montgomery/Blue Ash zip code. Of course now days, Loveland has become gentrified and is not a derogatory label any longer (since it was one of the last spaces on the East Side of Cincinnati with available land to build McMansions.

Finally, Atlanta is under a heat advisory again today, and we could break our record of 100 degrees if we hit 101 as forecast. As of 11 AM, we're up to 92. It's a "dry" heat though (as evidenced by people's yards).

UPDATE: Dean made its final landfall in Tecolutla, Veracruz, Mexico at 12:30 EDT with 100 mph winds. Nothing upcoming in hurricane land, but we're about on pace with the 2004 hurricane season (Frances, the F storm, formed on 8/24/04). Fortunately this year we have had no Charley.

Dean 3rd most strong storm to hit in Atlantic Basin...Cat 5/160 mph/906 mB

Dean hit the lower Yucatan Pennisula this morning at the resort of Costa Maya near the Mexico/Belize border. It is way to early to find out what happened there, although it promises to be bad. The area is very poor, very rural, and does not have great communications so it could be a while. I know the Mexican government did not mean it like it sounds, but they were happy that the storm did not hit the built-up/tourist areas of Cancun and Cozumel (who got whacked twice 2 years ago by Emily and Wilma). Dean is supposed to re-emerge and hit the southern Gulf coast (of Mexico) sometime tomorrow afternoon. No real effects for Texas except possibly some heavy rain in Brownsville. Obviously the Cameron County/Brownsville/South Padre Island evacuations have been called off.

There was also talk that a storm could be forming and hitting northern Florida sometime this weekend, although that does not seem to be the case. Although conditions are favorable, the storm is not forming, and the conditions are getting less favorable. The next storm would be Felix (the cat). Gabrielle and Humberto would be after that.

Besides a sprinkle on Friday morning, Atlanta has had no rain whatsoever. Our yard does look better though since I watered almost all night on Sunday (after midnight Saturday of course!). I have one last weekend of really good watering until I start going out of town all the time!!

Dean + Houston = Bad news

The influential GFDL Model (made by NOAA) is predicting a Cat 5 Houston landfall next week. That would be the worst case scenario, but becoming more likely. The official track has it moving a little farther to the South, however this morning's advisory says the ridge of high pressure which has been keeping Dean to the south has is weaker than first thought and therefore a curve up to the northern Gulf seems more likely. By early Wednesday morning, the storm could be as close as just off the coast of Terrebone Parish, Louisiana. If the storm does get near Houston, evacuations could start as early as Sunday or Monday. Yikes. More to come...

Erin makes landfall in Lamar/Aransas County, Texas; Dean to come

Erin has just about fizzled out. Accuweather's Joe Bastardi was apparently predicting Erin to hit hurricane status but that did not happen, and in fact at 7 AM Texas time (8 AM Eastern), Tropical Depression Erin made landfall in Lamar, Texas, which is in Aransas County and in the Corpus Christi metro area (about 25 miles north of Corpus) with winds just under tropical storm strength. The depression should be near Del Rio, Texas by early afternoon tomorrow. Earlier Tropical Storm Warnings had been discontinued in far South Texas, namely Willacy and Cameron counties, but now all warnings have been discontinued. Also, there were tornado warnings in Refugio earlier, but those have expired as well. A few minor school closings along the coast, but nothing serious, and a few delays at Hobby & George Bush airports in Houston.

On the other hand, Dean looks to be menacing. It looks like it could hit Cat 4 status by the time it hits Jamaica. The timeline would be Lesser Antillies on Friday (tomorrow) morning, Jamaica Sunday afternoon, Cancun early Tuesday morning. BUT, it could go as far south as Nicaragua and as far north as just off the coast of New Orleans. Winds are up to 80 mph with more strengthening probable. The hurricane hunters are off to investigate this afternoon.

As usual, more updates as we know more.

UPDATE: Dean is up to 100 mph winds and a tropical storm watch has been issued for U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Right now the best tracks take it to Houston, and raise it possibly to 180+ mph winds, which is a STRONG Cat 5...yikes! It looks like by Tuesday afternoon it will be squarely in the Gulf (SOMEWHERE), and we'll know a LOT more.

Speaking of Houston, lots of flooding occurred because of Erin, much more than they thought was going to happen.

Tropical Storm Dean & TD-5 (soon to be Erin) update

Tropical Storm Dean appears to be on a collision course with the United States somewhere between Miami and the Texas/Louisiana border, possibly as a Category 4 or 5. The model guidance keeps pointing it straight ahead instead of curving it as originally forecast, and therefore within about 48 hours it would be safe to say, on its current path, that the East Coast is out of the woods. Bad news for Pensacola, Mobile and New Orleans if that happens though (but it could bring Atlanta some rain!). The Storm looks to become a hurricane by late Thursday night/early Friday morning, and is expected to be near Jamaica by early Monday morning as a Category 3 or maybe even 4. The Palm Beach Post and the Northwest Florida Daily News (covering Fort Walton Beach, Destin & Sandestin) are starting to heavily cover the story.

Meanwhile Tropical Depression Five is picking up steam and could become Tropical Storm Erin at any minute. The hurricane hunters are currently investigating. Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for Freeport, Texas down to Rio San Fernando, Mexico. On this map you can see the approximate 350 miles of Texas coast affected, including the counties of Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy, Kleburg, Nueces (Corpus Christi), Aransas (Corpus metro), Calhoun, Matagorda, and half of Brazoria (which is Houston metro) (south to north). Most likely however, it'll hit somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, but I think the more likely scenario is a direct hit on Corpus (which won't be so bad for winds, but may be really bad for this region that's already flooded as we speak). Jeff Morrow was in Port Aransas yesterday but has moved to Corpus Christi (see map here).

More updates to come...another 100 degree day here probably.

UPDATE:
Erin is up to 40 mph, but a hurricane hunter is investigating and this may be raised. At landfall tomorrow Erin may be just shy of a Cat 1 hurricane, with winds of about 70 mph. It is now expected to make a direct hit on Corpus Christi, which could be bad in terms of rain, especially in nearby Victoria, which will be in the right front quadrant. A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for all of the area mentioned earlier, but extended to San Luis Pass, which is the Galveston/Brazoria line. This means Tropical Storm conditions are expected in that area within the next 24 hours. Landfall is expected at 2 PM Eastern/1 Texas time tomorrow.

Dean is up to 65 mph, and should be a hurricane by this evening. Hurricane Watches may be required for the Lesser Antilles by this evening or tomorrow morning. It still looks like it is going to plow through the Yucatan Channel, maybe by late Monday/early Tuesday. This is the worst case scenario, as there would be nothing to inhibit the strength, and the most likely target would be somewhere like Houston. Can we see Rita evacuation, part II? At the present time, by Monday afternoon it is expected that Dean will be a strong Cat 4, if not a Cat 5. It may not be as strong as Katrina, but it may be close.

Also today it has at least hit 101 in Atlanta, maybe higher. At 5:25 it's currently 100. My poor lawn! Maybe Dean hitting us wouldn't be so bad (much better than hitting an already saturated Texas that is already starting to get Erin!).

Dean forms...Erin next

Tropical Storm Dean has officially formed in the Atlantic Ocean, and is expected to be a CAT 3 Hurricane hitting Puerto Rico by 8 AM AST (same as EDT) Sunday morning. No watches or warnings up yet, but that will come soon enough. This is the first major storm that people are watching basically since Wilma hit around Halloween in 2005. This is definitely one to watch...the thinking is now it could hit between Connecticut and Miami, but this is all just guessing at this point. We'll know more by the weekend.

Next is what could be Tropical Storm Erin, forecast to hit extreme south Texas, somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. It's not yet a depression, but that could change any second as the storm is forming quite rapidly. Most likely it will not have enough time to make it to hurricane status, but it will bring unneeded rain to Texas. Texas is so wet right now, while the rest of us southerners are praying for rain for our parched lawns! Hurricane Hunters are going to investigate this afternoon.

Finally, Flossie is going to brush past Hawai'i sometime this afternoon in Hawai'i (about 10 PM our time)...track is here and here is the tropical storm warning/hurricane watch information for the Big Island of Hilo. You can also keep up with the storm on the Honolulu Star-Bulletin. The Big Island has had a rough go, just last night surviving an earthquake.

No rain in Atlanta, but it did hit 100 YET AGAIN. hot hot hot

AFTERNOON UPDATE!!!
"Erin" has not yet formed, nor has her predecessor, TD-5 formed yet. She is currently located here. However, the latest update says she will form any minute, which will require immediate postings of Tropical Storm warnings for extreme south Texas, including Cameron County/South Padre. There is already a voluntary evacuation issued for RV's on South Padre Island starting this afternoon.

In addition, Weather Channel has folks posted both on the big island of Hawai'i (Jim Cantore) and also in South Texas (Jeff Morrow).

Dean has not yet strengthened, but promises to, and the forecast track keeps inching south, which is NOT good news for the Gulf. It's headed for the Dominican Republic by Sunday afternoon.

This is getting serious

No sooner did I get back from the beach to find out that Tropical Depression 4 has formed in the Atlantic, a classic Cape Verde storm, and that an area of low pressure is forming in the Gulf of Mexico, that may eventually become Dean and strike the western Gulf Coast...all I can say is good thing we didn't go to the Gulf on our actual anniversary weekend, which was this upcoming weekend. Dean looks to be bad, and could reach Cat 3 strength by the end of the week, strike the Caribbean, and head towards the Gulf Coast People in Florida are already recommending that homeowners get their supply kits ready. More information as it becomes available! I would suspect anyone from about Miami to Houston should keep an eye on this storm.

Other than that, it's just been HOT...4 straight days of 100+ here in Atlanta, and my yard is showing the signs of that, with the exception of two green patches from where my sprinklers watered while I was away. Yikes. At least 2-3 more 100+ days this week...I wonder if Dean or Erin will hit us and we may actually get some rain! For now we are in the worst category of drought, which is a not a good sign...that drought covers most of western Georgia, over to about GA-400.

Crazy, crazy weather

1) The Dallas Metroplex had the coldest May & June ever...probably had a little something to do with the fact it poured down rain every day those two months!

2) The smog has been miserable in Atlanta lately, with code reds just about every day this week. Sitting on a floor near the top of the Bank of America tower yesterday, you could hardly see the other downtown highrises because of the yellowish haze.

3) Speaking of smog, it's because of the heat. It stopped raining again, and the temperatures are hovering around 100. Atlanta has not hit 100 yet, and has not done so since Summer 2000, but the heat indexes have been in the 100-110 range, as evidenced by the heat advisory yesterday and today (and tomorrow). In fact 24 of 48 continental states are under heat advisories. That's 50% for you math majors.

4) One place that's hot is the Southern Hills Country Club, where they're playing the PGA Tournament. The forecast for the rest of the tournament calls for highs right around 100 with indexes of about 110. By the way however, if I had to move to Oklahoma, I'd definitely move to Tulsa (& NOT OKC!).

5) Again speaking of heat, we're headed to Sandestin, Florida tomorrow in Walton County...I cannot wait!!!

6) Speaking of the beach, nothing going on in hurricane land...will this year be another dud?

7) The Beijing Olympics starts 1 year from today. Today in Tiananmen Square they are having a big celebration. The Olympics start at 8:08.08 AM on Friday Atlanta time. They are exactly 12 hours ahead of us in the summer since they don't do daylight savings time.

8) The show Greek on ABC Family is REALLY cheesy, but really good. I want to go to a Mt. Vesuvius party!!!

No Dean...yet

First of all, it's 29 days until football season! Tulsa at Louisiana-Monroe starts things off at 7 PM EDT on ESPN. Of course the real action starts on ESPN at 8 PM with LSU at Mississippi State in Starkville. I can't wait to be cruising around in the car listening to some games on my XM Radio!

Second, no Dean yet, but as best I can tell, the hurricane hunters are going to be flying out in the Atlantic, right here to check out a potential candidate. If this thing forms, it could be bad...remember that both Andrew and Katrina, and I'm sure others, were ragged and took a long time forming, and then obviously did a lot of damage.