NEWSFLASH: All watering banned in North Georgia

As of yesterday, northern Georgia is in a Level 4 drought, meaning NO watering, except for minor exceptions like golf course greens & 30 days to water landscaping installed by a professional. Yikes. All of the area in Georgia north of this line is affected.

I guess its sneaking around with a watering can for me...my poor yard! Now the question becomes can I overseed this winter since I won't be able to water the seeds in. We shall see.

In Hurricaneland, Melissa formed, but there is nothing else out there, and at this point Karen does not appear to be a threat. However she still bears monitoring.

Finally, GO HOOS! BEAT PITT!

TD-14 forms, next name is Melissa (then Noel and Olga)

TD-14 formed as of 11 AM in the Atlantic...it's still a ways off from land and because if formed fairly far to the north, it's almost certainly not a threat to land. It is expected to reach Tropical Storm strength, at least for a while, and therefore would be named Melissa most likely, unless another storm quickly forms.

On the other hand, Tropical Storm Karen, while barely hanging on, looks like it might recurve out due west, which would put it on a collison course with northern Florida or Georgia. If this atmospheric sequence of events occurs, the conditions would be ripe to turn Karen into a hurricane (or back into a hurricane, since it may have already reached that status). Although that would be a bad thing for the coast, that would be great for Atlanta (assuming it would make it here), as we DESPERATELY need the rain.

Speaking of Atlanta and rain, there are almost daily articles now in the AJC talking about our lakes, including Allatoona and Lanier, drying up which is bad since that is where our drinking water comes from. That combined with La Nina which would give us a dry winter, plus any dryness next spring, and we could have a catastrophe. Yikes. Already many lakehome owners on Lanier can no longer put their docks in the water.

I'm off to Alexandria in a few hours, then partying it up in DuPont Circle and Old Town. Also, GO HOOS! Peat Pitt.

TD-14 forms, next name is Melissa (then Noel and Olga)

Miss a day (well 5) miss a lot

Okay, since I last left off, Subtropical Depression 10 turned into a Tropical Depression, then made landfall near Fort Walton Beach, Florida before it had time to intensify into Jerry. Jerry did form, but as a Subtropical Storm and went north in the Atlantic. There is now Tropical Storm Karen, but that is likely to turn north soon and not threaten any land. Next we have Tropical Depression 13, which most likely will be upgraded at the next advisory (at 11 EDT/10 CDT) to Lorenzo. Finally, there are about three storms that could eventually be Melissa, Noel &/or Olga (is it just me, or is Noel more of a girl's name than a guy's name? Anyway...).

No rain in Atlanta yet, but there is a 30% chance of showers for tomorrow! Yeah!

I spent early Sunday morning in the ER...dehydration and food poisoning. Never have I been SO sick in my life. Wow. Fortunately I'm just about back to normal now.

Finally, we go to Alexandria/Mount Vernon, Virginia this weekend. That should be fun and exciting. Hopefully I can squeeze in some college football while we're there!

AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Karen: The weather patterns that were originally going to swing her out to sea aren't looking so strong now, and it appears Karen may be a threat to the U.S. after all. If this were to occur, it would be late next week. Intensity is anyone's guess.

TD-13: Although it looks impressive on satellite, this has not intensified yet, but still appears that it will become Lorenzo (or maybe Melissa? see below) and plow into Mexico after midnight on Friday night/Saturday morning.

Disturbance near Florida: This is looking healthy, and may become TD-14 and/or Lorenzo/Melissa before too long. It may be very close to Cape Hatteras as a Category 1 hurricane Friday night, &/or it may move up to Cape Cod. It will most likely be classified tomorrow.

Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in The Gulf

Subtropical Depression 10 formed in the Gulf as of the 11/10 Central Advisory. The winds are low, but it could become Jerry late tonight or early tomorrow. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the Mouth of the Mississippi over to Apalachicola, Florida, including the following Parishes (LA) and Counties (MS, AL & FL):

LOUISIANA: Plaquemines, St. Bernard, and for areas around Lake Ponchartrain including Orleans, Jefferson, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, Tangipahoa & St. Tammany.
MISSISSIPPI: Hancock, Harrison & Jackson
ALABAMA: Mobile & Baldwin
FLORIDA: Escambia, Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, Gulf & far western Franklin
Here is a map of the approximate area.

The Louisiana governor is already ordering evacuations for those in FEMA trailers and for those in areas prone to flooding. No other evacuations at this time but everyone is on alert. The most likely scenario is that the storm makes landfall tomorrow early afternoon around Biloxi, Misssissippi.

More updates as they occur.

On a drought note, Cobb & Paulding Counties, and the city of Mountain Park in extreme north Fulton Counties, has now banned all outdoor watering. Before those places were on a 3 mornings/week ban. Douglas, Carroll, Oconee, Clarke, Barrow and Jackson in the metro area have already banned outdoor watering. I hope that Fulton/City of Atlanta sticks to the 1 morning a week. I kind of expected them to loosen the ban with fall coming, but with the drought still in the worst category, not much rain, and a possibly rain free winter due to La Nina, I'm not that surprised.

Another week of football and the potential Jerry

First the tropics: The low pressure system is emerging off the Gulf Coast near Tampa, and could become Jerry as early as today. Most likely at this point, the storm will hit Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana sometime early this weekend. This is not good news for that low-lying, Katrina-ravaged Parish. Here is an article from the Times-Picayune, but only time will tell. Looks like Atlanta could get some rain from this, but it's too early to tell (by the way, Atlanta is still in an "exceptional" drought, although Georgia in total is getting just a bit better. However, Tennessee is getting worse, with nearly half the state in an "exceptional" drought). More to come obviously today.

Also, College football starts up again tonight, with A&M at Miami and Western Kentucky (ESPN) v. Middle Tennessee (CSS). I can't wait. Tomorrow night is Oklahoma/Tulsa and then Saturday is a long day. Go HOOS! BEAT GEORGIA TECH! History is on our side, as it's been a really long time since Georgia Tech beat us at home.

Finally I'm very excited because I downloaded a bunch of new songs in my IPOD, including Loving County (Charlie Robison), The Road Goes On Forever (Robert Earl Keen), Tear it Down (Old Crow Medicine Show), and Wagon Wheel (also OCMS). I have to run 5 miles for training today, and those will get me through, no doubt.

More tropical updates as they happen....

Tropical Storm to Hit New Orleans or Texas this weekend?

A low pressure center near Palm Beach, Florida is currently on track to become the next Jerry. The hurricane hunters are getting ready to start investigating this system soon. As of right now the track has shifted from Brownsville to NOLA, and now is confined to about Houston to Pensacola. Either the storm will go over the Loop Current and explode, a la Wilma, Katrina and Rita, or will go further west, and have plenty of time to organize over the warm Gulf of Mexico. Everyone on the Gulf should keep an eye on this one.

There are a few other little things in the Atlantic basin, but none imminent at this point.

One thing I can't figure out, where is Bob King of the Palm Beach Post? He is usually a good source of information but hasn't posted on his blog since 9/11.

I do know where Jim Cantore is however: Atlantic Beach, near Jacksonville. He's reporting on the heavy flooding and up to 8" of rain that JAX got due to the potential Jerry.

Finally, I watched K-ville last night (the dash is supposed to be a fleur de lis but my non-Louisianan keyboard doesn't have one of those :). It was actually pretty good. Many local New Orleanians are complaining about inconsistencies (such as "Gumbo Parties" or car chases at high speeds from the French Quarter to the Westbank being an impossibility due to the long distance and/or potholes, but since I'm not from there, I didn't notice. I didn't think the name "Rex duBois" was too out of line, maybe a little but not much (he's the father of a debutante socialite). I thought the best part was the main character finding out his new partner was a native New Orleanian (from NOLA East) due to the fact he can pronounce street names, get around without street signs (which apparently criminals steal to confuse cops), and because he says "neutral ground".

Watching the tropics

A little system just to the east of northern Florida is spiraling together and is supposed to move across the Florida peninsula then hit somewhere between Brownsville, Texas and New Orleans, as a strong tropical storm or a weak hurricane. Judging from Humberto, I'm thinking it's the stronger end of that scale. It could hit NOLA as early as Friday night. The hurricane hunters are going to investigate tomorrow.

Also, due to some apparently miscommunication at the ticket office, I got 4 tickets to UVa/VT over Thanksgiving weekend! I'm very excited, even if it will mean going with my Hokie parents and my Hokie-sympathizer sister.

Finally, I'm very excited about the South Carolina v. LSU matchup this weekend, but I don't know who to root for! Also, Gameday is at Tuscaloosa for Georgia v. Alabama.

What's left of Humberto and finally Ingrid

Ingrid is still struggling, but she's officially Ingrid as of last night. It looks like she MAY curve out to see, but it's still way too early to tell. By Wednesday morning she'll still be off the coast of Puerto Rico. We shall see.

The remnants of Humberto are just about over the Louisiana/Mississippi border near Sondheimer, Louisiana, or about point where East Carroll Parish, Madison Parish and Warren County come together. Atlanta should get 1-2" of rain from this (hopefully), even though I've set the sprinklers out to come on Monday anyway.

Off to Columbia this afternoon to watch the Gamecocks...I've got my Spurrier visor in tow!

11 AM UPDATE: Humberto's remains are now near Edinburg, in Neshoba County, Mississippi, approaching Philadelphia.

5 PM UPDATE: Humberto's remains are now near Rockmart, Georgia in Polk County. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is no longer going to follow this storm. We did have quite a burst of rain though from Humberto, which must have been what is left of the eyewall of the storm.

Also, it looks like Ingrid is going to stay out to sea. No sign of "Jerry" yet.

Finally, it's Mojo v. Haka tomorrow night...in other words Odessa Permian is playing Euless Trinity on live TV on FSN. In case you're wondering what Haka is, read on.

HURRICANE Humberto....no Ingrid quite yet

A Hurricane made landfall with 85 mph last night just to the east of High Island, Texas, around point where Chambers, Galveston & Jefferson counties all meet. This was quite a surprise to forecasters. When I went to bed last night, the Weather Channel said the storm was being ripped apart, while CNN said this would be a minimal hurricane...the latter was right, except that it was actually a decent sized Cat 1, and had Texas not been in the way, we'd be looking at a major (i.e. 3+) hurricane right now. This is the first landfalling US hurricane since Wilma in October 2005. The storm has made its way through Chambers, Jefferson, Orange and Newtown Counties, and has now made its way into Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana, near Starks. Hurricane warnings still exist (as the storm is still an 80 mph hurricane) from High Island to Cameron (Chambers Co., Jefferson Co., & western Cameron Parish), and a tropical storm warning exists for eastern Cameron Parish & Vermillion Parish. According to KPLC in Lake Charles, which will take the brunt of the Hurricane shortly (and took the brunt of Rita), most schools are closed in the area.

Worst case scenario for this, and what one model predicts, is that this will turn back out to the Gulf but then sit over New Orleans, giving flooding rain...although New Orleans is in a bit of a deficit, they are not in a drought and definitely do not need flooding rain. The official forecast has a Tropical Depression Humberto somewhere between Meridian, Mississippi and Mobile, Alabama by 2 AM Eastern/1 AM Central Saturday morning.

TD-8 is not Ingrid yet, and is expected to gain Tropical Storm status possibly by the 11 AM update. There is going to be some shear this weekend, but if it holds together through Monday, it will be a force to be reckoned with, and could be nearing the north shore of Puerto Rico by Tuesday morning.

Atlanta is back in the worst category of drought (after going down to a level 3 for a week!)....we were supposed to get rain, and we can only hope we'll get rain from Humberto!

MORE UPDATES AS HUMBERTO MOVES!

11:20 EDT UPDATE: Humberto is now in Allen Parish, near Longville, Louisiana (deep in the heart of Arcadiana), and is expected to be near Tuscaloosa by Friday night. In the 10 AM CDT discussion, forecasters are boggled as to how this storm grew SO fast.

No Ingrid yet, and she is really struggling.

Major tropical update

TD-8 just formed and is expected to track just to the northeast of Puerto Rico by Tuesday or Wednesday, and could hit the East Coast sometime late next week. Its current position is here. This would be Humberto should it turn into a Storm. This would be the 2nd Humberto Storm...in 1989 it replaced Hugo as that storm name was obviously retired.

TD-9 just formed and is expected to hit Galveston Bay by tomorrow morning, probably as a Tropical Storm. This is very bad for Texas as they do NOT need rain and Houston is very flood-prone, especially now. It is currently here. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the entire area from Port O'conner, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana, including western Cameron Parish, and Jefferson, Chambers, Galveston, Harris Brazoria and Matagorda Counties in Texas. Tropical Storm Watches go east from Cameron to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. This covers eastern Cameron Parish & Vermillion Parish.

Finally yesterday we came upon the 6th Anniversary of 9/11....it brought me back to all those memories I was feeling and how I couldn't sleep without the TV because it was somehow comforting and because I was afraid I'd miss something (especially living so close to the CDC!). I also remember being shocked when they first allowed camera crews in the air and you could see the damage from above.

Updates later today!

UPDATE: TD-9 is now Humberto and the Tropical Storm warning has been extended all the way to Intracoastal city, Louisiana. It is at 50 mph, and is forecast to get stronger, but probably just shy of Hurricane Strength.

TD-8 has not become Ingrid yet, but is forecast to, and has formed in the same general area as Hugo and Georges. WAY too early to tell where this could go, but it could hit anywhere along the U.S. coast sometime late next week.