Hurricanes & Zip Codes

Blogging about anything and everything that's on my mind.

Name:
Location: Atlanta, Georgia, United States

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Gustav, Hanna & (Ike)

Gustav looks bad, but not horrific. It's planning to come in between Grande Isle and Cocodrie, and that's not good b/c Grande Isle, where Betsy made landfall in the 60's, is the worst possible place to land which puts NOLA in the dirty side of the storm. That's also worrisome because most storms tend to jog right just before landfall (think Edouard, Wilma, Katrina, Rita, Ivan, etc. etc.). However, the official cone of death still includes everywhere between Houston and the Mississippi/Louisiana border. It's a 3, but could strengthen to a 4 by the 5 PM EDT/4 PM CDT advisory, but will most likely (I think) make landfall as a weak 3 (which is STILL a bad storm).

Tropical Storm WARNINGS are in effect for Franklin, Gulf, Bay, Walton, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa & Escambia (Florida) Counties. Then a Hurricane WARNINGS are in effect for Baldwin & Mobile (Alabama) Counties, Jackson, Harrison & Hancock (Mississippi) Counties, and St. Tammany, Orleans, St. Bernard, Tangipahoa, Livingston, Ascension, St. James, St. John the Baptist, St. Charles, Lafourche, Terrebonne, Plaquemines, St. Mary, Iberia, Vermilion & eastern Cameron (Louisian) Parishes (this includes metro NOLA and Lake Pontchartrain). A Hurricane WATCH is up for western Cameron Parish, and Jefferson and Chambers Counties in Texas.

That is not all yet though. Tropical Storm Hanna is on track to strike the Atlantic Coast, possibly as a Category 3. The 5 day cone includes all of Florida except for Key West and areas west of Saint George Island in the Panhandle. It also includes areas of Georgia (coastal, southern and central), South Carolina, and North Carolina up to Surf City.

To keep up to date with Gustav: WWL.

Finally, Ike could form any minute, and could strike ANYWHERE, or NOWHERE (we won't know until it forms and we get a track!).

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Friday, August 29, 2008

St. Charles & St. Bernard are starting evacuations

Scene in Baton Rouge:


St. Bernard and St. Charles are starting assisted evacuations, and may start (along with others) mandatory evacuations by tomorrow. Right now Gustav is leaving Jamaica, and could hit anywhere between Corpus Christi and Destin, Florida in the next five days. However, it is most likely to hit Houma around midnight Monday night. My flight on Delta is now in a situation where I can change it without penalty up until September 8. Lafourche has a mandatory evacuation by 3 PM tomorrow. The Saints will most likely be going to Indianapolis.

Hanna is also still out there, and is taking a weird hook south at the end of the 5 day track.

More updates to come...BTW though, if I had plans this weekend anywhere from the Louisiana/Texas border to Panama City, I would SERIOUSLY consider cancelling my plans. Good luck everyone.

11 AM UPDATE: Gustav is reorganizing after heading back over water, and now eastern Louisiana from Lafourche Parish all the way to the Mississippi/Louisiana border including New Orleans and all of Jefferson Parish is in the 3 day cone.

Also, John McCain's running mate will be Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Finally, if you're going to get gas, get it NOW, because gas is going to quickly rise with the threat of Gustav!

Here are the Contraflow maps for New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana. This will probably start tomorrow.

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Thursday, August 28, 2008

Gustav, possible Hanna and football season

Gustav update: The tracks for Gustav are a mess because unexpectedly, Gustav jogged south this morning and is now expected to go around the southern coast of Jamaica instead of the northern coast. New models are being run now, but basically the model tracks mean nothing. However "officially" the track has it possibly making or having made landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Panama City. Winds are at 70 mph and the pressure is 988, and Gustav should be a hurricane again possibly within the hour.

There are no decisions yet on evacuating New Orleans or other surrounding parishes, and the LSU game, for now is still going on schedule. Evacuations could still start as early as Saturday afternoon, and contraflow could start Sunday. This is mainly due to the fact that now it seems if the track still has Gustav headed towards NOLA or just west, it won't be until Tuesday morning, probably as a Category 3. My trip to New Orleans next week however is already cancelled.

TD-8 formed as well this morning, and it could be Hanna within the next hour. Right now the storm is pointed towards Palm Beach, however within 5 days from now (next Tuesday morning) it would still be only as close as eastern Bahamas.

Today is the start of football season, and I'm headed to the Georgia Tech v. Jacksonville State game, which should be exciting in that Ryan_Perrilloux, formerly of LSU, will be the starting QB for the JSU Gamecocks and GT is unveiling its brand new offense. Also, the Gameday tents are all set up in the middle of Centennial Olympic Park for the big Alabama v. Clemson game at the Georgia Dome on Saturday. I'm nervous for our (Virginia) game against Southern California in Charlottesville, but figure it's a win-win...either we lose big and it's as expected, or we win and our stock goes way up.

More updates through the day.

11 AM UPDATE: Gustav is still at 70 mph but could become a hurricane at any time. The track has settled out to hitting Houma/Lafourche Parish, Louisiana on Tuesday as a Category 3. Hannah has also been named, and is still headed towards Florida.

Fay is finally a thing of the past as the last advisory has been issued on her. She moved from North Jackson County, Alabama, through Niota, Tennessee, near Exit 56 of I-75, up past the Cumberland Gap at the VA/TN/KY border, and at 5 AM was located near Williamsport, Kentucky in Johnson County. Here is her path.

No update on evacuations yet, but those plans are all ready to go at any minute.

Also, John McCain will announce his VP selection today or tomorrow...I hope it's Romney.

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Gustav could be dangerous...my trip to NOLA next week could be cancelled.

Gustav is south of Cuba is and is heading apparently straight for New Orleans. Within the next 5 days (by Monday afternoon), the storm could have made landfall anywhere from Port Arthur, Texas to Punta Gorda, Florida, although the models seem in good agreement that NOLA is the target.

Plans are in place to start evacuating coastal Parishes by Friday morning, and contraflow could start as early as Saturday afternoon (which could make coming back from the LSU game in Baton Rouge on Saturday tricky with no eastbound lanes on I-10).

I'm supposed to be headed to New Orleans on Tuesday, however that trip looks in jeopardy. We'll see what happens. I'm not going to get stuck in a city below sea level, especially if the levees don't hold up! In any event I'm listening to WWL to get the latest.

The Louisiana delegates have left the Democratic National Convention, and Mayor Nagin is on his way home.

This is all coming on the heels of the 3rd anniversary of Katrina on Friday, and comes on a Labor Day weekend. We were SUPPOSED to go to Sandestin, Florida next week, but I can't imagine that is going to happen either!

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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Gustav strengthens, Fay still making rain, potential Hanna, Ike and Josephines?

Fay is now just west of Tuscaloosa and the University of Alabama. She has moved up from Meridian in the last 12 hours. Thomasville, Georgia has gotten 27.5" of rain from this storm, and Lake Lanier, Atlanta's water supply, has gotten 3.41" so far, but probably more with this morning's storms.

Gustav is now a strong Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph and 981 mb. He is expected to keep strengthening, especially before he makes landfall in Haiti today. In 5 days he is expected to be just west of the tip of Cuba as at least a Category 3, or a major hurricane. Everywhere from the entire Mexican Yucatan peninsula to the southern coast of Miami Dade and the Keys is in the cone of uncertainty by Saturday night/Sunday morning. As of right now, New Orleans is the most likely target.

In addition, there are at least 3 other potential waves out there, two of which with a moderate potential to form, that could turn into Hanna, Ike and Josephine. It's the beginning of the height of hurricane season!

In Atlanta metro, a tornado warning was posted during the morning rush hour for the entire city limits. Nothing was spotted, although the storm was located right over our house in NW Atlanta. Yikes. Things have cleared up a bit, but more rain is on the way and we're under a Tornado Watch until 7 PM this evening.

11:45 AM UPDATE: Gustav is about the same, but the track is going farther westbound and is still heading for New Orleans (listen to WWL for more details). Fay has now moved towards Courtland in Lawrence County, west of Huntsville. We're not getting rain now, but should get more this afternoon.

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Monday, August 25, 2008

TD-7 Forms, Post Olympic Depression Syndrome

First, the Beijing Olympics ended with a ceremony so over the top just like the opening ceremonies! London came in with a this video, then a double-decker bus, Beckham and Leona Lewis after a rousing rendition of God Save the Queen (the tune is the same as My Country Tis of Thee). Only 18 months until Vancouver, and Sochi is the 2014 Winter host. Chicago (who was awarded the 1904 games but had them taken away so Saint Louis could combine them with the World's Fair), Tokyo (who were supposed to hold the cancelled 1940 games and held the 1964 games), Rio (would be the first to be held in South America) and Madrid (Spain also held the very successful Barcelona games, partly because the former IOC president, Juan Antonio Samaranch, was from there).

Now unfortunately it's time for Post Olympic Depression Syndrome (PODS) to set in.

Tropical Depression Fay was sitting over Marion County, near Morgantown and the Louisiana border for most of the night, but is now up near Lake and Forest, in Scott County, still south of Jackson. The weather is fine there, but Atlanta is under a Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM this afternoon through tomorrow night. A Tornado Watch is posted just to the west of the city of Atlanta, and Tornado warnings have been popping up for eastern Alabama, including Cleburne County, which is in the Atlanta metro area and is where I-20 enters Alabama. Could be a wild day, with 5-8" of rain expected in Atlanta (hopefully right over my house and Lake Lanier!!!).

Also, Tropical Depression 7 formed south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, prompting tropical storm watches and warnings for those countries. This storm has the chance to be over Miami-Dade or Key West by Saturday. We'll have to keep an eye on it. It probably will be "Gustav" by this afternoon, and could be nasty.

Well tonight is some yardwork and catching up on non-Olympic DVR that's been stored for 2 weeks!

2 PM UPDATE: Gustav has been christened and is already packing 60 mph winds. Hurricane Warnings have been posted for Hispaniola.

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Sunday, August 24, 2008

Fay now a depression and starting to rain itself out

Fay crossed over Eglin Air Force Base in Okaloosa County, then moved up to Berrydale in northern Santa Rosa County, went into Alabama up through Washington County near Bigbee, and is now located just north of I-59 Exit 118, Vossburg/Paulding, in Jasper County Mississippi, just SE of Jackson.

No other storm has formed yet, but this could change any minute...

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Saturday, August 23, 2008

Fay on the Nature Coast, headed to New Orleans

Fay has been moving at a decent clip finally. As of 8 PM yesterday she was back out in the Gulf, west of Keaton Beach and south of the Taylor/Jefferson county line. By 11, she had moved due south of Saint Marks and Wakulla County. At the 2 AM she was in the Saint George Sound after crossing Dog Island, and shortly after made landfall just southwest of Carabelle in Franklin County. At 5, she had almost crossed Franklin County. At 8, she had crossed the time zone line and was near Port Saint Joe in Gulf County.

At 5 PM yesterday, all warnings for the Atlantic Coast were discontinued. At 11 PM, Warnings for Hernando, Citrus and Levy Counties were discontinued in the big bend area. In addition, the Watch for western Okaloosa, Santa Rosa & Escambia Counties in Florida and Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama switched to a Warning. Also, a new Watch was posted for Jackson, Harrison & Hancock Counties in Mississippi, and Saint Tammany, Saint Bernard & eastern Plaquemines Parishes for Louisiana. At 5 AM this morning, the warning was extended to cover the Mississippi coastal counties above, and a Watch was extended to include Lake Ponchartrain and metro New Orleans, including the Parishes of Jefferson, western Plaquemines, Orleans, Saint Charles, Saint John the Baptist, Livingston and Tangipahoa.

As evidenced by the watches and warnings, Fay is expected to scrape the coast and maintain tropical storm status. Scary however, is the fact that after 48 hours, the models conflict in where she will go, and she may actually do a loop over New Orleans, which would bring unwelcome rain and possibly some flooding. We can only wait and see.

In Atlanta we are getting gusty winds but no rain at all. Meanwhile Macon, who does not really need the rain that bad, is getting socked!

It'll be a long day of watching the Olympics today as tomorrow is the Closings!

NOON UPDATE: Fay is currently in the East Bay south of Callaway and east of Tyndall Air Force Base in the Panama City area. Winds are near 45 mph, pressure is at 998 mb, and although some fluctuations could occur, it's not expected to get a lot stronger or weaker.

2 PM UPDATE: Fay is now over Walton County, near Bruce.

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Friday, August 22, 2008

Fay finally moving

Fay is FINALLY moving, and although she's weakened a bit, down to 45 mph with the pressure up to 996, it's not as much as expected, and it's not expected that she'll lose Tropical Storm status as she crosses over Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for Hernando, Citrus, Levy, Dixie, Taylor, Jefferson, Wakulla and Franklin Counties on the Gulf, and the Tropical Storm Warning for the Atlantic remains the same except it has been cancelled for Indian River and northern Saint Lucie Counties. A new Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for Gulf, Bay, Walton & eastern Okaloosa Counties, which includes Panama City & Destin (including where we're going next month, Sandestin).

The storm has traversed across Florida, starting near Ormand Beach at 11 PM last night, heading through Lake Disston, Marion County near Kerr City, Rochelle near the intersection of FL 20 & 325 in Alachua, and finally near Exit 384, Old Archer Road off of I-75, right by the University of Florida campus (and as a result, rush has been cancelled for today...haha).

Landfalls appear to be coming for Saint George Island and then the Florida/Alabama border. Although if it goes a bit to the south, we could have a tropical storm hitting New Orleans Sunday night into Monday morning.

News stations to watch: For Panama City, NBC/WJHG (wjhg.com), ABC/WMBB (wmbb.com) & CBS/WTVY (out of Dothan, wtvynews4.com). For Mobile/Pensacola, NBC/WPMI (nbc15online.com), ABC/WEAR (weartv.com), & CBS/WKRG (wkrg.com).

11 AM UPDATE: Fay has moved into Gilchrist County, still as a Tropical Storm. She's about 6 hours or 36 miles from the Gulf but should be able to retain her Storm status. Tropical Storm Warnings for Volusia & Brevard Counties on the Atlantic have been dropped (Warnings to the GA/SC line remain), a Warning has been posted for Gulf, Bay, Walton & eastern Okaloosa Counties, and a new Watch has been posted for western Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Escambia Counties in Florida, and Baldwin & Mobile Counties in Alabama (to the Alabama/Mississippi line).

I also forgot to mention that there are 2 very good candidates out there for Gustav and Hanna, either of which could be a dangerous storm!

5 PM UPDATE: Fay is barely hanging on as a tropical storm but is almost over water. Now she's at the Lafayette county line in Dixie County, near the intersection of US 19/27 and FL-51. She's expected to exit between Steinhatchee & Keaton Beach, roughly due east of Saint George's Island.

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Thursday, August 21, 2008

Fay just east of Daytona Beach

Fay is pounding the shores of Volusia county and is dropping torrential rains. A good part of Brevard County is flooded out, with reports of up to 25" of rain in Melbourne!!! Winds are up to 60 mph. Rain has currently spread up to Valdosta and Waycross, Georgia.

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Altamaha Sound to the SC/GA border has been replaced with a Warning, which includes the Savannah area.

The track takes Fay skirting along the Gulf of Mexico Coast, either just onland or just in the water. We'll have to wait and see because as of now she is not moving.

5 PM UPDATE: Fay has made her third Florida landfall near Flagler Beach. Her winds are still 60 mph and the pressure is 993 mb.

Because the storm is still holding so well together, a tropical storm watch has been issued for Dixie, Taylor, Jefferson, Wakulla and Franklin Counties (where Eastern Time becomes Central Time), basically the big bend of Florida. The track is right along the Gulf so if it goes over land, it'll be a depression, and if it goes over water, it might regain Tropical Storm status (assuming it loses that status across Florida).

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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

No idea what Fay will do at this point!

Fay is currently at 50 mph with a pressure of 995, up from 994 at 8 AM. She is currently stationed, and hardly moving, over Merritt Island, between Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center, and is dumping torrential amounts of rain on the Space and Treasure Coasts.

The forecasts call for her to move just barely into the Atlantic over the next 12 hours, then come back over Florida, where she will weaken again. She could emerge into the Gulf, become a strong hurricane and threaten New Orleans, or she could stay over the Panhandle and bring a bunch of rain to those areas. Who knows?

All Hurricane Watches have been dropped, and the Tropical Storm Warning south of Fort Pierce has also been dropped. This leaves the followin in a Warning: northern Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard, Volusia, Flagler, Nassau and Duval in Florida, and Camden and Glynn in Georgia. The Tropical Storm Watch up to the Georgia/South Carolina line remains.

All this Olympic watching has made me tired! I can't wait to start getting some sleep! Well, that is at least after I catch up on my non-Olympic DVR shows!

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Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Fay inland over Florida...could make 2 more landfalls in Florida???

Fay is currently inland, near Felda in Hendry County. Her path has been like this since 5 AM when she made landfall just south of Marco Island.

All Hurricane Watches and Warnings have been cancelled. Torpical Storm Warnings have also been cancelled on the west coast from the Sarasota/Manatee line at Longboat Key northward. The east coast watches and warnings are the same. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Florida Bay and the Keys from Ocean Reef to Seven Mile Bridge (basically the middle and upper Keys).

Pressure is at 988 mb (the lowest she's ever been), and winds stand at 60 mph, which are the same as when she made landfall. Tropical Storm Winds have affected all of Florida at some point (and now) from Lake O southward.

The current path has Fay exiting somewhere around Daytona into the Atlantic on Wednesday afternoon, restrengthening, and then making a third landfall in Florida around Jacksonville sometime on Thursday afternoon. Fay would then continue along the Georgia/Florida line and possibly reemerge into the Gulf. However, it's possible Fay could reemerge into the Gulf as early as midnight tonight out by Tampa and head up to Saint George's Island, or Fay could exit into the Atlantic by Fort Pierce and then hit Charleston sometime Friday. We'll have to wait and see! In any event, the prospect of Fay rain for Atlanta looks not promising at all!

The other area of interest has not yet formed, but appears headed towards Miami-Dade...we'll keep an eye on that.

This is getting distracting trying to keep up with hurricanes and the Olympics!

11:30 AM UPDATE: Fay is now near Port La Belle in northern Hendry County, about to head to Moore Haven in Glades County near Lake O. Winds are still at 60 mph and pressure has actually dropped to 986! Spotters said they noticed an eyewall trying to form even though the stom was over land. Current forecast has it coming out into the Atlantic, and could possibly get even as strong as a Cat 2 before it makes landfall on the First Coast.

2 PM UPDATE: Fay has not weakened, and in fact has maintained 986 mb and the winds have gone UP to 65 mph! Fay is about to go over the very warm waters of Lake O, and that at minimum could prevent weakening, but also could help even strengthen the storm further so that she is almost already a hurricane by the time she gets to the really warm Atlantic. The tornado warnings have moved up to the space coast and tornadoes have done some damage.

Here are the stations to follow the storm with:
Palm Beach/Gold Coast: NBC: wptv.com, CBS: news12now.com, ABC: wpbf.com
Orlando/Space Coast: NBC: wesh.com, CBS: local6.com, ABC: wftv.com
Jacksonville/First Coast: NBC/ABC: firstcoastnews.com, CBS: cbs47.com

7 PM Update: Fay is STILL at 65 mph and STILL at 986 mb. This is wild, and I think it's totally confounding weather forcasters! In any event, it's expected to emerge into the Atlantic tonight around midnight and then strengthen to a Category 1 or Category 2.

It's location is currently in extreme northeastern Okeechobee, near the Fort Drum Service Plaza at Mile 184 of Florida's Turnpike. It's very near Osceola County but expected to exit Florida (for now) around the Indian River/Brevard line near Sebastian or Melbourne.

The Watches/Warnings have also been updated. The Tropical Storm WARNING is now just in effect for Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia Counties. A Tropical Storm WATCH is in effect for the Georgia Coastal Empire counties of McIntosh, Liberty, Bryan and Chatham, including Savannah. Most importantly however, a Hurricane Watch is now in effect south of the Altamaha Sound at Darien for Glynn and Camden Counties, including Sea Island and Saint Simons Island, and for Nassau, Duval, Saint Johns and Flager Counties on the First Coast, including Jacksonville. The official track has it heading down the Florida/Georgia line after it makes landfall around Thursday afternoon, but it's a very good possibility it might enter into the Gulf and cause more trouble! Wow.

10 PM (AND FINAL FOR TODAY) UPDATE: Fay has now entered Indian River County, and is about due south of Vero Beach. More to come tomorrow.

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Monday, August 18, 2008

Fay update for 8/18

Fay has just finished crossing Cuba and is a 60 mph tropical storm with pressure of 1002 mB. It is expected to keep strengthening, but not rapidly, and although the forecast track changes just about every update, right now most likely it will make landfall in Port Charlotte (landfall location of Charley), although it could be anywhere from the Everglades at midnight tonight all the way to St. George's Island on Wednesday afternoon. Everyone on Florida's west coast to St. George's should be on guard, and everyone on the Atlantic from Jupiter Inlet up to Cape Lookout, North Carolina should be on guard.

Tropical Storm Warnings currently are in effect for Lee, Collier & Monroe Counties on the West, and Palm Beach, Broward & Miami-Dade Counties on the right.

Tropical Storm Watches on the east have been extended up to Sebastian Inlet, so this area now includes Indian River, Saint Lucie and Martin Counties on the Treasure Coast.

in Georgia, Tropical Event Statments have been posted all the way to Turner and Worth Counties, which is only 160 miles from my house. Atlanta REALLY needs the rain from this, but I'm afraid it might head between Augusta and Columbia, which would most likely keep us high and dry.

Some evacuations are currently in place, including those in trailers in Sarasota County and the Keys, visitors to the Keys (hence why there are no tolls on the Florida's Turnpike Extension up to the regular Florida's Turnpike), and those in Collier County west of Tamiami Trail (US 41), which includes my grandparent's house.

UPDATE: Although the storm hasn't changed in intensity or pressure, a new Hurricane Warning has been posted for mainland Monroe, Collier, Lee, Charlotte, Sarasota & Manatee Counties. The Tropical Storm Warning is to the right of that, including Miami-Dade, Broward & Palm Beach, but also now extended to Indian River, Saint Lucie, Martin and southern Brevard Counties. The Watch has been extended all the way to the Georgia line, which includes northern Brevard, Volusia, Flager, Saint Johns, Duval and Nassau Counties. This means it will affect almost the entire Florida peninsula at one point or another. The storm track is looking more and more like it might miss Atlanta completely, and it may even reemerge in the Atlantic and then threaten the Carolinas.

The latest track has it hitting somewhere between Cape Sable in the Everglades this afternoon all the way to Saint Marks by Wednesday morning, and if it emerges in the Atlantic, that would happen between Port Saint Lucie Tuesday afternoon up to Charleston Thursday morning. Information is a bit limited because the National Hurricane Center website has crashed.

Links to follow include NBC 2 in SW Florida, NBC 6 in Miami/the Keys, and TBO in the Tampa Bay area.

5 PM UPDATE: The Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended all the way up from Anna Maria Island to Tarpon Springs (basically Tampa Bay metro), and have been extended up to Flager Beach, meaning northern Brevard & Volusia are now under a Warning (basically Daytona). The Hurricane Watch has been cancelled for the Keys, and for the south coast of Miami-Dade (although there have been tornado watches through the day, and a possible one is now near Homestead, site of the Andrew landfall in 1992).

The Storm is currently stalled between Key West and the Dry Tortugas after making landfall just after 3 PM on Key West proper.

The newest storm track keeps shifting to the East and she may not have time to reach Hurricane status before making landfall near Marco Island (near midnight) most probably (although it looks certain to at least be a very strong Tropical Storm). Landfall could be as far east as the Collier/Monroe line all the way to the Franklin/Wakulla line in the Big Bend.

The track after it crosses the peninsula is anyone's guess, and most are saying it can go anywhere from making a landfall at the Georgia/South Carolina border near Savannah to crossing back over the Florida peninsula and hitting New Orleans. Who knows!?

NBC 2 out of Fort Myers is streaming live if you're interested.

Also, there is another something that could be Gustav forming in the Atlantic. Although it's very unreliable, the early model runs have it pointed towards Miami.

9 PM UPDATE: The storm is currently just north of Key West and just west of the southern coast of mainland Florida. Landfall is still expected this evening as a strong TS/weak Cat 1, probably in Charlotte County. The path now takes it out to the Atlantic around Jacksonville, but back on land somewhere on the southern coast of Georgia. Atlanta should then (hopefully) get Fay as a depression on Saturday afternoon/Sunday which would greatly help our drought, assuming the winds aren't too bad.

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Sunday, August 17, 2008

Fay forms, US updates

Fay formed on Friday evening and although it originally was supposed to head up the Atlantic, plans have changed and it now looks like a Gulf Coast storm.

As of 5 AM, A Tropical Storm Watch was posted for Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef, or Palm Beach, Broward, and the east coast of Miami-Dade County. Also, a TS Watch was issued for Glades, Hendry, Martin, Palm Beach and Okeechobee Counties along the coast of Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch was posted for Ocean Reef to Key West, or the Florida Keys (Monroe County), and Card Sound Bridge to Bonita Beach (Collier, mainland Monroe & the south coast of Miami-Dade).

As of 11 AM, the Hurricane Watch was extended to Anna Maria Island, which added Lee, Charlotte, Sarasota & Manatee Counties. A Tropical Storm Warning was posted for the lower keys, from the Dry Tortuga to Craig Key.

At 5 PM, the Hurricane Watch was extended to Tarpon Springs, including Pinellas & Hillsborough Counties, the Tampa Bay metro area.

At this point, it looks like landfall near Steinhatchee (the big bend area) on the Florida Panhandle around noon on Wednesday. This is after it passes by Key West some time on Monday, maybe as a hurricane by that point. However, It should be up to Augusta late next week, maybe by Thursday afternoon.

Bottom line, it's going to hit Florida at some point this week, but that could be anywhere from Naples by midnight tomorrow all the way to Destin Wednesday afternoon.

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Thursday, August 14, 2008

No TD-6 or Fay just yet

The hurricane hunters went to investigate a system located generally over the Virgin Islands, and although they found winds well within tropical depression range, they did not yet find a closed circulation. However, conditions are only going to get better for this thing to develop and so it's worth keeping an eye on.

Although track forecasts are notoriously unpredictable before a closed circulation develops, early indications find that it could affect anyone from Virginia Beach all the way to South Padre, but especially the Bahamas and Florida, depending on how straight the track is. One track has it hitting the Florida/Alabama line, which would be ideal to relieve some of the north Georgia drought (which is slowly getting worse again)!

I would not be surprised if we found TD-6, or even Fay, to develop by 8 PM or 11 PM (when they release advisories).

Names coming up...Fay, Gustav, Hanna

Olympics update: I am totally obsessed with the Olympics which makes it even more difficult as it's online and on TV 24 hrs/day. Apparently everyone else is obsessed as well considering that NBC's ratings have equaled all other networks combined. This is probably in large part due to the fact that, except for the period between noon and 8 PM EDT, most events are shown live due to some negotiations with the Organizing Committee to have marquee events take place in the morning to compensate for the 12 hour time difference.

The US is currently in 2nd place in the medal count after China cleaned up yesterday in all things taking place at the Water Cube.

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Friday, August 08, 2008

08.08.08

It's almost time to watch the Opening Ceremonies! I have been purposely avoiding Internet spoilers of that so I can be surprised and amazed as if I were watching it real time. The weird part however is that we'll be able to watch events on NBC Olympics even before the ceremonies start, as it will be morning in Beijing (FYI, the sun comes up around 5:30 China Standard or 5:30 PM EDT or so this time of year there).

Nothing in the tropics of note to worry about which is a good thing. It's almost the height of the season though so we'd better watch out.

More on the Olympics next time...

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Thursday, August 07, 2008

Hurricanes, Drought & the Olympics

Edouard finally dissipated near Benjamin, Texas in Knox County, loosely near Wichita Falls. The last statement was put out last night at 11 PM EDT.

There is another system trying to brew over the Bahamas, but conditions are not favorable and it does not look like this will be our next system.

The new drought maps are out and the drought in both Georgia and Texas is about the same. Georgia really does need a landfalling system somewhere along the Florida panhandle!!!

Finally, it's less than 23 hours now until the Opening Ceremonies begins. I wonder how the Today show will work tomorrow if Matt is doing the Opening Ceremonies (which will be on tape delay) while Meredith is live on the Today show?? I guess we shall see.

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Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Edouard near Waco, Olympics less than 48 hours away!

What is left of Edouard has made a slow 200 mile treck up to Central Texas to Clifton, Texas in Bosque (pronounced BAAS-key) County. As of 2 AM EDT, it was near Franklin, in Robertson County (NW of Bryan/College Station). Unfortunately, it completely missed all the severe drought-stricken areas between Houston, Austin & San Antonio.

Coming up, there is a possibility of something forming by the weekend off the coast of Florida. It is also about a week until the season really ramps up.

As of 9:08 this morning eastern time, there are only 47 hours until the Opening Ceremonies of the Olympics Start!

UPDATE: The remnants of Edouard are now in Hood County, near Tolar & Granbury, Texas, near the Erath County line. That puts it loosely in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex.

45 hours!

5 PM EDT UPDATE: The remnants of Edouard are now in Stephens County, over the Hubbard Creek Reservoir near Breckenridge, Texas, which is loosely in the Abilene area, about halfway between Abilene and Fort Worth. The Hydrometerological folks say they're going to keep issuing updates though, at least up to 11 PM tonight.

39 hours!

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Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Edouard makes landfall

Edouard has just recently made landfall in Jefferson County, Texas, between High Island, Texas and Sabine Pass, LA/TX. Winds are at 65 mph, which makes this a fairly strong tropical storm. The storm was limited by the fact it turned earlier than normal so it did not have that much time over water. This was in lieu of the forecast which had it making its way into Galveston Bay and into downtown Houston. Houston should still feel the effects later today but the storm should be weaker by that point.

Tropical Storm Warnings still remain, but they are condensed. Now, they cover Jefferson, Lafourche, Terrebonne, St. Mary, Iberia, Vermilion, & Cameron Parishes in Louisiana, and Jefferson, Orange, Chambers, Galveston, Harris, Liberty & Brazoria Counties in Texas.

Hurricane Watches include all those areas except for Iberia, St. Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche & Jefferson Parishes, however those are likely to get dropped at the 11 AM EDT/10 AM CDT advisory.

Tropical Storm winds have affected the coast all the way from Terrebonne Parish to about Gilchrist, on the Bolivar Peninsula. Limited evacuations are in effect in Cameron & Vermilion Parishes for the lower-lying areas, and there is a voluntary evacuation for the Port Arthur neighborhood of Sabine Pass, Texas.

Matt Lauer was in the Forbidden City today. 3 days!

11 AM UPDATE: The storm is now in Liberty County, right at the Liberty/Chambers line just north of Hankamer. Incidentally, I-10 is closed between Exits 812 & 813 (yes I-10 is THAT long in TX), near Hankamer & Anahuac along Texas Route 61. Winds are down to 60 mph.

The Hurricane Watches have been discontinued, and Tropical Storm Warnings east of Cameron, Louisiana (leaving only western Cameron Parish) and the one for Brazoria County has been discontinued.

2 PM UPDATE: The storm is down to 50 mph, but still a Tropical Storm. It is now located southeast of Dayton, Texas, still in Liberty County. The Tropical Storm Warnings are the same.

5 PM UPDATE: The storm is now a "Depression" with 35 mph winds, and it is located near Patton Village and Woodbranch in extreme eastern Montgomery County, near the intersection of US-59/Eastex Freeway and TX-242. Although the center is much less important now that it is disorganized, and more important is where the rain is hitting. However, the storm needs to track farther west and south to help the drought, as shown here.

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Monday, August 04, 2008

Edouard update & Olympics

Well this morning they extended the Tropical Storm Warning to the Brazoria/Galveston County lines, and then extended it again all the way to Port O'Connor at the Calhoun/Brazoria line.

Winds are currently down to 45 mph, but the storm is getting its act together and so strengthening is expected, especially if it stays offshore and does not interact with land. Tropical Storm winds aren't currently on the coast of Louisiana, but this could change if the storm keeps forming.

This morning Matt Lauer was at the Great Wall of China in Badaling, China. He will be doing the Opening Ceremonies with Bob Costas on Friday for the first time. In addition, the newly updated Olympic website shows that the Opening Ceremonies will now begin TV coverage at 7:30 PM EDT instead of 8 PM (sorry tv tabloid fans!) and WXIA-HD will have coverage starting at 7 PM, I think with correspondents in Beijing...they were the flagship NBC station for the Atlanta games.

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Although Edouard has not strengthened, the pressure continues to drop (down to 1000 mb) and the tropical storm windfield continues to expand, to the point that the coast of Terrebonne Parish is experiencing tropical storm force winds at this point.

The storm is heading straight for the western coast of Galveston Bay, which means that the City of Houston will feel the brunt of whatever comes, being either in the eyewall (if one forms) or the right front quadrant of the storm/hurricane. Landfall will probably be sometime around 1 PM CDT on Tuesday.

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Sunday, August 03, 2008

Edouard forms, heading for Galveston and Houston

Surprise, TD-5 formed today at 5 EDT, and by 6 PM EDT, it was Tropical Storm Edouard. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the Louisiana Parishes of Iberia, St. Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson, and Plaquemines up to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tropical Storm Watches are up for Vermilion & Cameron Parishes in Louisiana and Jefferson, Chambers, Galveston, Liberty, Harris, Brazoria & Matagorda Counties in Texas (which includes the Houston metro area and the Golden Triangle).

Winds are up to 50 mph, and the storm is small but strengthening. It could very possibly be a hurricane when it hits Galveston and Houston metro on Tuesday morning.

AND....as I write this, the Tropical Storm Watch has been dropped....now replaced with a Hurricane Watch.

Although the thunderstorm activity in the center has diminished, that trend will probably not continue...basically at this point it's anyone's guess what happens!

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