Ike update

We're in Sandestin, Florida now, but Ike should miss us.

As for Ike, the cone of error includes all of Texas, all of Louisiana, and a bit of extreme north Mexico. The most likely track has it hitting just north of Corpus Christi on Saturday afternoon as a Category 3. However, the NHC says they aren't quite sure! We'll keep an eye.

Gustav, Hanna, Ike & Josephine??

Gustav is now a tropical depression, and the hurricane center has issued the last advisory on it. It made landfall as a Cat 2 just west of Cocodrie in Terrebonne Parish. It then moved through western Terrebonne, moved near the intersectino of Terrebonne, Saint Mary's and Assumption Parishes and then went up by Patterson and Morgan City in St. Mary's Parish. It then weakened to a Category 1, passing by Charenton in St. Mary's, up to Catahoula after moving through Iberia to St. Martin's Parish (the largest French-speaking area in the country), then went near the intersection of St. Landry/St. Martin/Lafayette, near Sunset & Grand Coteau. It then moved up to Evangeline Parish near Plattville. Finally it weakened to a tropical storm near Calcasieu in Rapides Parish, then moved to Vernon parish, near its intersection with Natchitoches & Rapides (near Temple). It was weakened to a Tropical Depression in Sabine Parish, near Marthasville on the Natchitoches Parish line.

Folks in NOLA can't go back in yet, but that evacuation order should be lifted by the end of the week. There was quite a bit of damage in Baton Rouge surprisingly because of the surprisingly northward turn it made, which includes the LSU campus. Hurricane winds hit all of south central Louisiana, including the NOLA metro area except for the north shore, which only got tropical storm winds. Those extended all the way from just east of Houston to Pensacola. Now there are tornadoes in Alabama, Florida and Mississippi.

As for Hanna, in the next three days, she could make landfall anywhere from Fort Lauderdale to Jacksonville. However, the 5-day cone includes the east coast from Fort Lauderdale all the way to the Maine/Nova Scotia border. Landfall is most likely around Charleston, South Carolina as a strong Category 2. Currently it's a strong tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and 987 mb.

For info on this storm, check out WSAV in Savannah, WITN in the Outer Banks, and WAVY TV in Hampton Roads.

On to Ike, in five days, Ike could be a strong Category 2 hurricane sitting in the Bahamas and aiming towards the Florida Straits and possibly the Gulf. There's no real chance of a US landfall by Sunday afternoon though.

Finally, Tropical Depression 10 formed this morning, and will most likely be Josephine by the 11 AM advisory. This could be a Category 1 by Sunday afternoon, however by then it will still only be in the middle of the Atlantic.

If you're wondering what's coming, Kyle, Laura and Marco are the next names on the list, however there are no other "trouble" areas to be concerned with right now. As for comparison, the last time there were 3 named systems was in 2005 with Maria, Nate and Ophelia. By Friday, all Hanna, Ike and Josephine could be all hurricanes at the same time. Also by comparison, in 2005 we were already on storm M - Maria.

Now the big question (especially since I'm obviously not going to my work trip in NOLA today...is where the heck do we go to the beach next week??!

11:45 UPDATE:
Gustav: He's now in Bossier Parish, near Taylortown and Elm Grove and has moved through Natchitoches and Red River parishes, 13 miles SE of Shreveport.

Hanna: This is now forecast to be a Category 1 by Friday noon. This is when she should make landfall around Charleston, although it could be anywhere from Miami to Hilton Head, or on the Gulf from Tampa to Saint Marks (panhandle). It's 70 mph with pressure of 987 (unchanged).

Ike: He should be a Cat 2 by Monday, or possibly even a 3. The winds are at 60 mph and the pressure is 1002. The track is the same and he should be upgraded to a Hurricane by tomorrow.

Josephine: Jo is official, and will still be a Tropical Storm likely by Monday. It may recurve out to sea but it's too early to know.

5 PM UPDATE: Hanna is treking along and northern Florida, Georgia and southern South Carolina coastal communities are getting prepared just in case. Gustav is now in Caddo Parish just near Ida, right at the corner of Miller County, Arkansas & Cass County, Texas.

Gustav could be dangerous...my trip to NOLA next week could be cancelled.

Gustav is south of Cuba is and is heading apparently straight for New Orleans. Within the next 5 days (by Monday afternoon), the storm could have made landfall anywhere from Port Arthur, Texas to Punta Gorda, Florida, although the models seem in good agreement that NOLA is the target.

Plans are in place to start evacuating coastal Parishes by Friday morning, and contraflow could start as early as Saturday afternoon (which could make coming back from the LSU game in Baton Rouge on Saturday tricky with no eastbound lanes on I-10).

I'm supposed to be headed to New Orleans on Tuesday, however that trip looks in jeopardy. We'll see what happens. I'm not going to get stuck in a city below sea level, especially if the levees don't hold up! In any event I'm listening to WWL to get the latest.

The Louisiana delegates have left the Democratic National Convention, and Mayor Nagin is on his way home.

This is all coming on the heels of the 3rd anniversary of Katrina on Friday, and comes on a Labor Day weekend. We were SUPPOSED to go to Sandestin, Florida next week, but I can't imagine that is going to happen either!

Fay finally moving

Fay is FINALLY moving, and although she's weakened a bit, down to 45 mph with the pressure up to 996, it's not as much as expected, and it's not expected that she'll lose Tropical Storm status as she crosses over Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for Hernando, Citrus, Levy, Dixie, Taylor, Jefferson, Wakulla and Franklin Counties on the Gulf, and the Tropical Storm Warning for the Atlantic remains the same except it has been cancelled for Indian River and northern Saint Lucie Counties. A new Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for Gulf, Bay, Walton & eastern Okaloosa Counties, which includes Panama City & Destin (including where we're going next month, Sandestin).

The storm has traversed across Florida, starting near Ormand Beach at 11 PM last night, heading through Lake Disston, Marion County near Kerr City, Rochelle near the intersection of FL 20 & 325 in Alachua, and finally near Exit 384, Old Archer Road off of I-75, right by the University of Florida campus (and as a result, rush has been cancelled for today...haha).

Landfalls appear to be coming for Saint George Island and then the Florida/Alabama border. Although if it goes a bit to the south, we could have a tropical storm hitting New Orleans Sunday night into Monday morning.

News stations to watch: For Panama City, NBC/WJHG (wjhg.com), ABC/WMBB (wmbb.com) & CBS/WTVY (out of Dothan, wtvynews4.com). For Mobile/Pensacola, NBC/WPMI (nbc15online.com), ABC/WEAR (weartv.com), & CBS/WKRG (wkrg.com).

11 AM UPDATE: Fay has moved into Gilchrist County, still as a Tropical Storm. She's about 6 hours or 36 miles from the Gulf but should be able to retain her Storm status. Tropical Storm Warnings for Volusia & Brevard Counties on the Atlantic have been dropped (Warnings to the GA/SC line remain), a Warning has been posted for Gulf, Bay, Walton & eastern Okaloosa Counties, and a new Watch has been posted for western Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Escambia Counties in Florida, and Baldwin & Mobile Counties in Alabama (to the Alabama/Mississippi line).

I also forgot to mention that there are 2 very good candidates out there for Gustav and Hanna, either of which could be a dangerous storm!

5 PM UPDATE: Fay is barely hanging on as a tropical storm but is almost over water. Now she's at the Lafayette county line in Dixie County, near the intersection of US 19/27 and FL-51. She's expected to exit between Steinhatchee & Keaton Beach, roughly due east of Saint George's Island.

Hurricane Season, Labor Day & Football

I'm almost off to the airport to go to Pittsburgh all weekend...should be fun & interesting.

Last night football season started with a bang...a 45-0 routing of Mississippi State at the hands of Louisiana State. Fun times. I went to watch w/LSU fans at a bar called Hi-Tops off of Buford Highway in DeKalb County.

Two systems may form today...the first is by the Windward Islands and looks strong but the Hurricane Hunters have to go out and confirm. After that warnings and watches may quickly appear. A second one is up in the Northeast, and may be named before it fizzles out.

Last, for your reading pleasure, A Love Letter to Southern Football.

Crazy, crazy weather

1) The Dallas Metroplex had the coldest May & June ever...probably had a little something to do with the fact it poured down rain every day those two months!

2) The smog has been miserable in Atlanta lately, with code reds just about every day this week. Sitting on a floor near the top of the Bank of America tower yesterday, you could hardly see the other downtown highrises because of the yellowish haze.

3) Speaking of smog, it's because of the heat. It stopped raining again, and the temperatures are hovering around 100. Atlanta has not hit 100 yet, and has not done so since Summer 2000, but the heat indexes have been in the 100-110 range, as evidenced by the heat advisory yesterday and today (and tomorrow). In fact 24 of 48 continental states are under heat advisories. That's 50% for you math majors.

4) One place that's hot is the Southern Hills Country Club, where they're playing the PGA Tournament. The forecast for the rest of the tournament calls for highs right around 100 with indexes of about 110. By the way however, if I had to move to Oklahoma, I'd definitely move to Tulsa (& NOT OKC!).

5) Again speaking of heat, we're headed to Sandestin, Florida tomorrow in Walton County...I cannot wait!!!

6) Speaking of the beach, nothing going on in hurricane land...will this year be another dud?

7) The Beijing Olympics starts 1 year from today. Today in Tiananmen Square they are having a big celebration. The Olympics start at 8:08.08 AM on Friday Atlanta time. They are exactly 12 hours ahead of us in the summer since they don't do daylight savings time.

8) The show Greek on ABC Family is REALLY cheesy, but really good. I want to go to a Mt. Vesuvius party!!!

Chantal (& Dean?)

Well Chantal formed. It's only planning to hit St. John's, Newfoundland tomorrow morning (and then Iceland sometime around early Sunday Morning), but still somewhat exciting. The only problem with that is the fact that tomorrow is supposedly the Royal St. John's Regatta, a crew race. This is one of the few "weather-dependent" holidays in the world, so if the weather is crappy (like it is supposed to be) they can postpone it until the first good weather day. I assume you can keep up to date on that in the The Telegram. Just remember that Newfoundland is 1 1/2 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time, so for instance at 10 AM it would be 11:30 in St. Johns (b/c there is a time stamp at the top of the paper saying the last time the news was updated).

More importantly however, is a storm that has the potential to become "Dean". It is not even a tropical depression right now, but it is one of those classic African waves. Early model runs, which really don't mean anything show this. That is definitely worth watching. I just hope whatever it is stays away from Sandestin/Walton County, Florida for next weekend when we head to the beach!

It's beginning to look a lot like...Phoenix! City of Atlanta issues additional watering ban

The City of Atlanta has just issued an additional Watering Ban: Even addresses now can only water midnight to 10 AM on Saturday mornings, and Odd addresses, like me can only water midnight to 10 AM on Sunday mornings. Looks like I'll have to reset the timers to come on Sunday mornings, pull out the other timer to start watering @ midnight, and wake up by 8 AM on Sunday morning to turn on the sprinklers again...it'll then be a LONG week before I can do it over again, and heaven forbid if I am out of town one Sunday! We need the rain. Fortunately I think that the new bushes I planted fall under the "newly planted" exception, so I'll be able to water those, and hopefully the water will leak down into the grass!

Speaking of Phoenix though, we just got back from Paradise Valley, Arizona. I managed to get a nice tan without peeling. It's a nice place, but very different from here...so many cacti and lawns made of red pebbles. Hot too...in the low 100's, although this week I think it's much cooler.

It's also time for the big Memorial Day weekend...we've got our flag out on the front porch...

Memorial Day also means that Hurricane Season 2007 officially starts on Friday. Even though we've already had Andrea, this is the "official" start, as seen by the Weather Channel w/ads to the effect of "Hurricane Season starts June 1st, only here on the Weather Channel"...a little dramatic if you ask me. You'd think a CAT 5 was going to bear down on us that day...it's not American Idol!

Andrea dissipating; golf

Andrea is becoming a non-factor, although it could strengthen as it heads out to see and threaten Bermuda as a strong subtropical storm. It almost was not bad enough, because instead of putting out the Georgia/Florida forest fires in Ware/GA, Charlton/GA & Baker/FL, it fanned the flames without providing any significant moisture (for the most part less than 1/2"). All tropical storm watches have been discontinued as it's gone down to a subtropical depression. I guess we'll have to wait for Barry.

This is a big golf week...The Players tournament in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida is going on (TPC Sawgrass) and the LPGA Tour has a big event, the Michelob Ultra Open at Kingsmill in Williamsburg. My parents are volunteering at the latter event.

Other than that no news...just one more day until we fly out to Phoenix/Paradise Valley! I can't wait! This was a miserably busy day at work!!!