Unusual almost hurricane heading towards Maine

Well this is unusual. A strong tropical storm, currently located due east of Palm Beach County, Florida and due south of Portland, Maine, is gaining in strength, and could become a Category 2 hurricane before it hits land as a Category 1 or strong tropical storm. Will the Weather Channel cover this one?

Currently the storm is supposed to hit sometime between Sunday midday and Sunday night. This could be anywhere from the Rhode Island/Massachusetts line all the way up to Halifax, Nova Scotia. However, the most likely path takes it to the Nova Scotia/Maine line late Sunday. The current forecast for Lubec, Maine, which is right on the international border, calls for gusty winds and temps in the 60's on Sunday...not exactly classical hurricane weather!

For previous reference, the strongest hurricane to hit Maine was a Category 2 storm back in 1869 that struck right around the international border (but officially in Canada), and Hurricane Gloria, which struck Connecticut but was still a 1 going through Maine.

Also, everyone is gearing up for the HUGE Alabama/Georgia game tomorrow. We are leaving around 8:30 or so and hoping to get there by 10. The game is at 7:45 PM (yeah, that's how WE do it in the South). However, with the gas shortage, no one is sure how they are going to get to/from the game. As for us, we are making sure our tank is completely full before leaving Atlanta, and then hoping to make it there/back on 1 tank.

No gas, no water, and a tanking economy...awesome day huh?

Gas shortages and no tropical systems yet

Well I finally had to buy gas today considering my gas light came on. I went to 5 different gas stations and found some at a station on Moreland Avenue in East Atlanta for the bargain basement price of $4.69/gallon. The rest of the stations were completely out. Apparently the problem is centered in metro Atlanta as most of the rest of the country seems to be okay.

In addition, no tropical systems have formed, however the system down by Puerto Rico still has a good chance, and there is a new system that may be tropical or subtropical just off the coast of North Carolina. We'll wait some more.

Potential Kyle near Hispanola, Football season in full effect

There is a disbturbance vaguely around Puerto Rico and Hispanola that is bringing lots of rain to that area (but not really so much for Haiti fortunately for them), and could become Kyle at any time (or at least a tropical depression). Early word is that it may become a minimal hurricane and strike the New York or New England coast, however until it becomes a system, it is almost impossible to know where it would go.

I'm headed to Athens, Georgia (assuming there are adequate gas supplies to get me there!) for the Top 10 matchup of Alabama at Georgia this weekend. It is a "blackout" and UGa is wearing their black jerseys. Very exciting. Meanwhile UVa is struggling and is not favored against Duke (who is having, for them, a somewhat amazing season). Argh.

Houston/Galveston still a mess but the tropics are quiet.

Ike finally dissipated on Sunday night near Orilla, Ontario, Canada, which is due north of Toronto and Buffalo. However, after hitting Galveston Island with 110 mph sustained winds and a huge storm surge more like a Category 4, it flew up through Oklahoma and Missouri, but not before leaving 15.75" of rain in Houston and blowing 75 mph gusts in Louisville (incidentally every house in Anchorage, Kentucky, a suburb had damage to some degree).

Nothing on the tropical front for now, but 49 days until the election!

Ike update & Hanna Recap

Ike made landfall as a Category 2 at downtown Galveston at 3:20 AM EDT. It then moved up to San Leon, Texas, at the Chambers/Galveston line in Galveston Bay. Then it moved up to Morgans Point/Baytown, at the mouth of the San Jacinto River on the north end of Galveston Island. By 6 AM EDT it was in Crosby, then went up to Huffman, Texas in far eastern Harris County. By 8 AM it was in Conroe, near Cut & Shoot in Montgomery County, and then by 11 AM had moved up to Trinity, Texas in Trinity County, still as a Category 1.

Since I didn't get to it last week, Hanna made landfall last Saturday, 9/6, at the North Carolina/South Carolina border as a strong tropical storm. Then by 5 AM it was in Council (Bladen County), NC. 8 AM: Kenly, NC in Wilson County at exit 107 of I-95. By 11 AM it was in Greenville County, Virginia near Skippers. By 2 PM it was in Saluda, Virginia in Middlesex County, Virginia, near Deltaville. By 5 PM it has moved across the Chespeake Bay to Dorchester County, Maryland, near Vienna, Maryland and the SW corner of Delaware. By 8 PM it had strengthened some and was near Egg Harbor City (Atlantic County), New Jersey. By 11 PM it was in the Atlantic, just south of West Islip, New York Long Island, south of the Suffolk/Nassau county lines. By 2 AM, it was at Jewett City (New London County), Connecticut, near the border with Rhode Island. The last advisory was issued at 5 AM Sunday when it was off the coast of Rockport/Gloucester/Essex County, Massachusetts, where it was becoming extratropical.

New watches and warnings, Ike's pressure drops

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia, Saint Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson, Plaquemines, Assumption, Ascension, Livingston, St. Bernard, Orleans, St. Charles, St. James, St. John the Baptist, St. Tammany and Tangipahoa Parish, and Hancock, Harrison & Jackson Counties in Mississippi.

The Hurricane Watch is still the same.

Most likely track now is making landfall as a 4 around Freeport, Texas, which would basically be worst case scenario for Houston.

Today is 9/11...MSNBC is showing the Today Show from that day. Creepy.

Watches & warnings posted

A Hurricane Watch has been posted for Kenedy, Kleburg, Nueces, Aransas, Calhoun, Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers & Jefferson Counties in Texas and western Cameron Parish in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch was posted for eastern Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia, Saint Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson and western Plaquemines Parish.

The MOST likely track, is a Category 4 hurricane hitting just north of Corpus Christi, Texas. However, the track still includes all the areas in which a Hurricane Watch is now posted.

Waves were high here in Sandestin, and the water was actually closed to swimmers.

Ike in the Gulf, headed to Texas

Ike is currently a Category 1, and has just emerged from the Gulf. It is now forecast to make landfall anywhere between extreme northern Mexico up to Cameron Parish, Louisiana, however, the most likely scenario is Corpus Christi as a Category 3.

In Sandestin, the surf is starting to get higher now that he's on the Gulf side of Cuba. Red flag are up on the beach.

Ike update

We're in Sandestin, Florida now, but Ike should miss us.

As for Ike, the cone of error includes all of Texas, all of Louisiana, and a bit of extreme north Mexico. The most likely track has it hitting just north of Corpus Christi on Saturday afternoon as a Category 3. However, the NHC says they aren't quite sure! We'll keep an eye.

Hanna & Ike Update

First the Watches and Warnings:
The Hurricane Watch from last night, from Edisto to Currituck Light, remains the same.

The Tropical Storm warning, as of 11 AM includes the following:
Georgia: McIntosh, Liberty, Bryan, Chatham
South Carolina: Jasper, Beaufort, Colleton, Charleston, Georgetown, Horry
North Carolina: Pender, New Hanover, Brunswick, Carteret, Onslow, Hyde, Dare, Currituck, Tyrell, Camden, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Chowan, Bertie, Washington, Beaufort, Pamlico
Virginia: Counties of Accomack, Chesapeake, Isle of Wight, Northampton, York, Gloucester, James City, Lancaster, Matthews, Middlesex, Northumberland, Surry, Westmoreland, Arlington, Fairfax, King George, Prince William, Stafford; Independent Cities of Chesapeake, Newport News, Hampton, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia beach, Falls Church, Alexandria, Manassas, Manassas Park
Maryland: Cecil, Caroline, Kent, Queen Annes, Talbot, Worcester, Dorcester, Somerset, Wicomico, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Harford, Prince Georges, Baltimore, City of Baltimore,
District of Columbia: The entire district
Delaware: The entire state, including Sussex, Kent, New Castle
New Jersey: Salem, Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, Ocean, Burlington, Monmouth
This includes, DC, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, the Outer Banks, Baltimore, and Atlantic City.

A new Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for:
Connecticut: New London, Middlesex, New Haven, Fairfield
New York: Suffolk, Nassau, Westchester, Bronx, Queens, Kings (Brooklyn), Richmond (Staten Island), New York (Manhattan).
This includes the New York Metro area.

The winds are at 65 mph & 980 mb. It should make landfall between Hilton Head and Cape Lookout, however the most likely spot now is Pawley's Island, just south of Myrtle Beach. This should occur early Saturday morning. It will move up through Hampton Roads Saturday afternoon and on Long Island just after midnight Saturday/Sunday, being by Boston on Sunday morning. For Williamburg in particular, rain should start by 1 PM, with winds by 7 AM Saturday, the worst of the storm by 5 PM Saturday, and it should clear up by 1 PM Sunday.

Ike's track has shifted significantly south this morning, and is now expected to miss Miami and go through the Keys as a Cat 4, and eventually be off the coast of Punta Gorda by Wednesday morning still as a Cat 4. Everywhere on the Florida peninsula and panhandle from Panama City/Mexico Beach on the Gulf to Jacksonville on the Atlantic is in the 5 day cone.

7 PM UPDATE: The following counties are now under a Tropical Storm Watch:
Massachusetts: Barnstable, Dukes, Essex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Nantucket, Bristol & Suffolk
Rhode Island (the entire state): Includes Bristol, Kent, Newport, Providence & Washington.

Winds are at 70 mph & the pressure is 984 mb.

Gustav, Hanna, Ike & Josephine, still...

Gustav - Gustav is still around as a depression, and has moved on this path and is now located in Johnson County, Arkansas, near Fort Douglas adn the Pope County line. 19" of rain has fallen over Larto Lake in southern Catahoula Parish in northeast Louisiana.

Hanna is up to 65 mph winds with a pressure of 989 mb. A Hurricane Watch has been posted for Carteret, Onslow, Pender, New Hanover & Brunswick Counties in North Carolina, including Cape Lookout, Cape Fear and Wilmington. In South Carolina it includes Horry, Georgetown and Charleston Counties, including Charleston, Myrtle Beach and Pawley's Island. A Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for Colleton, Beaufort and Jasper Counties in South Carolina and Chatham, Bryan, Liberty & McIntosh Counties in Georgia. This includes Savannah and Hilton Head.

The 3-day track has it hitting anywhere from Hilton Head to Portland, Maine. However, the most likely option is a NC/SC border hit as a minimal Hurricane in the early morning hours of Saturday. By Sunday morning, it will probably be on Long Island, New York.

As for Ike, it is a Category 4 storm, with 938 mb. In 5 days, it could be anwhere from Tampa south, down to the Keys, and up to Flagler Beach north of Cape Canaveral, but the mostly likely scenario has it reeking havoc in the Bahamas as a Category 4. Some talk that it may be another Andrew, but I think it will now turn north (and not head into the Gulf) and hit the Carolinas, although one model has it hitting New York as a major hurricane...yikes!

Josephine has 50 mph winds and 1000 mb of pressure. It's still in the middle of the Atlantic.

7 PM UPDATE:
Gustav: It is in Godfrey, Jersey County, Illinois, near Alton and the Missouri border. It moved this way, just past Saint Louis. It is to the point now where the storm is considered dissipated, but it is still bringing heavy rain to Chicago.

Hanna: Hanna is at 65 mph and 988 mb. It should make landfall as a strong tropical storm (or very weak Hurricane) early Saturday morning near Wilmington, North Carolina. However, it will affect the entire east coast, and it could make landfall anywhere between Charleston & Cape Hatteras. The storm will move up through the Hampton Roads area on Saturday afternoon, and by Sunday at lunchtime, should be near the Maine/Nova Scotia Border. The weather channel is in Wrightsville Beach near Wilmington and up at Cape Hatteras. Many schools are cancelled tomorrow, and many football games are being played tonight.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for: SC: Jasper, Beaufort, Colleton, Charleston, Georgetown & Horry. NC: Pender, New Hanover, Brunswick, Carteret, Onslow, Hyde, Dare, Currituck, Tyrell, Camden, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Chowan, Bertie, Washington, Beaufort & Pamlico.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended to include southern Currituck (Corolla and below), Dare, Hyde, Beaufort & Pamlico.

A Tropical Storm Watch has now been posted for: VA: The Cities of Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton, Poquoson, Newport News, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Alexandria, Falls Church, Manassas & Manassas Park, and the counties of York, Gloucester, Matthews, Middlesex, Lancaster, Northumberland, Westmoreland, King George, Stafford, Prince William, Fairfax, Arlington, Accomack, Chespeake, Isle of Wight, James City, Northampton & Surrey. DC: The entire District. MD: Prince Georges, Charles, St. Marys, Calvert, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, Cecil, Kent, Queen Annes, Talbot, Dorchester, Somerset, Worcester, Wicomico, and the City of Baltimore. DE: The entire state (Sussex, Kent, New Castle). NJ: Salem, Cumberland, Cape May. This watch includes the Hampton Roads metro, the Washington, DC metro and the Baltimore Metro.

Ike: He's still a Cat 4 with 945 mb pressure. It could make landfall as a strong 3 or a "weak" 4, and unfortunately the most likely track is downtown Miami on Tuesday afternoon. However, the track includes the Gulf Coast from Cedar Key down to the Keys, and from Miami up to Flagler Beach. Here is a timeline for folks in south Florida to follow.

Josephine: She's still out to sea.

Finally, there is a potential Kyle out there, however he's not in any hurry to form up yet.

Hurricanes update

Gustav is now in Little River County, Arkansas, near the Red River and Bowie County, Texas, closest to the town of Ashdown, Arkansas. Since yesterday afternoon he has moved this way. Rain up to 10" has been dumped in that area, and tornado warnings are still out in central Louisiana. Orleans residents are also now allowed to go home to check their property.

Hanna is at 60 mph and 996 mb. It should hit Charleston as a Category 1 hurricane around midnight Friday, but in the next three days COULD hit anywhere from Boca Raton to Morehead City, North Carolina (near Cape Lookout). The Clemson game could be moved because of it (they are playing the Citadel). In the next five days, it will make its way up the east coast, being in Maine by the end of the weekend.

Ike is still churning its way west. In five days, it should be a Category 3, and could be anywhere from Miami to the upper Keys, but in reality shouldn't quite be that far. New Orleans and Houston should be on alert for this one. Now its at 65 mph and 996 mb, but will most likely strengthen to a hurricane today.

Josephine is at 60 mph and 1000 mb, but will most likely stay out at sea.

No words on any evacuations, but The Post and Courier is showing the contraflow routes (although I don't know if they call it contraflow in SC).

2:30 PM UPDATE: Gustav is still in Little River County, Arkansas, near Winthrop, and still dropping heavy rain. Areas between Alexandria & Shreveport have gotten up to 17" of rain so far.

Hannah is now projected to make landfall in the Grand Strand area near Georgetown, but not until Saturday morning, and then skirt the coast and be over Boston as a tropical storm on Sunday morning.

9 PM UPDATE: Hanna looks like it now might be on course to hit Hampton Roads and the Outer Banks by Saturday afternoon...and Ike is a major hurricane that may follow in her footsteps.

Gustav, Hanna, Ike & Josephine??

Gustav is now a tropical depression, and the hurricane center has issued the last advisory on it. It made landfall as a Cat 2 just west of Cocodrie in Terrebonne Parish. It then moved through western Terrebonne, moved near the intersectino of Terrebonne, Saint Mary's and Assumption Parishes and then went up by Patterson and Morgan City in St. Mary's Parish. It then weakened to a Category 1, passing by Charenton in St. Mary's, up to Catahoula after moving through Iberia to St. Martin's Parish (the largest French-speaking area in the country), then went near the intersection of St. Landry/St. Martin/Lafayette, near Sunset & Grand Coteau. It then moved up to Evangeline Parish near Plattville. Finally it weakened to a tropical storm near Calcasieu in Rapides Parish, then moved to Vernon parish, near its intersection with Natchitoches & Rapides (near Temple). It was weakened to a Tropical Depression in Sabine Parish, near Marthasville on the Natchitoches Parish line.

Folks in NOLA can't go back in yet, but that evacuation order should be lifted by the end of the week. There was quite a bit of damage in Baton Rouge surprisingly because of the surprisingly northward turn it made, which includes the LSU campus. Hurricane winds hit all of south central Louisiana, including the NOLA metro area except for the north shore, which only got tropical storm winds. Those extended all the way from just east of Houston to Pensacola. Now there are tornadoes in Alabama, Florida and Mississippi.

As for Hanna, in the next three days, she could make landfall anywhere from Fort Lauderdale to Jacksonville. However, the 5-day cone includes the east coast from Fort Lauderdale all the way to the Maine/Nova Scotia border. Landfall is most likely around Charleston, South Carolina as a strong Category 2. Currently it's a strong tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and 987 mb.

For info on this storm, check out WSAV in Savannah, WITN in the Outer Banks, and WAVY TV in Hampton Roads.

On to Ike, in five days, Ike could be a strong Category 2 hurricane sitting in the Bahamas and aiming towards the Florida Straits and possibly the Gulf. There's no real chance of a US landfall by Sunday afternoon though.

Finally, Tropical Depression 10 formed this morning, and will most likely be Josephine by the 11 AM advisory. This could be a Category 1 by Sunday afternoon, however by then it will still only be in the middle of the Atlantic.

If you're wondering what's coming, Kyle, Laura and Marco are the next names on the list, however there are no other "trouble" areas to be concerned with right now. As for comparison, the last time there were 3 named systems was in 2005 with Maria, Nate and Ophelia. By Friday, all Hanna, Ike and Josephine could be all hurricanes at the same time. Also by comparison, in 2005 we were already on storm M - Maria.

Now the big question (especially since I'm obviously not going to my work trip in NOLA today...is where the heck do we go to the beach next week??!

11:45 UPDATE:
Gustav: He's now in Bossier Parish, near Taylortown and Elm Grove and has moved through Natchitoches and Red River parishes, 13 miles SE of Shreveport.

Hanna: This is now forecast to be a Category 1 by Friday noon. This is when she should make landfall around Charleston, although it could be anywhere from Miami to Hilton Head, or on the Gulf from Tampa to Saint Marks (panhandle). It's 70 mph with pressure of 987 (unchanged).

Ike: He should be a Cat 2 by Monday, or possibly even a 3. The winds are at 60 mph and the pressure is 1002. The track is the same and he should be upgraded to a Hurricane by tomorrow.

Josephine: Jo is official, and will still be a Tropical Storm likely by Monday. It may recurve out to sea but it's too early to know.

5 PM UPDATE: Hanna is treking along and northern Florida, Georgia and southern South Carolina coastal communities are getting prepared just in case. Gustav is now in Caddo Parish just near Ida, right at the corner of Miller County, Arkansas & Cass County, Texas.