Tropical Storm Dean & TD-5 (soon to be Erin) update
Tropical Storm Dean appears to be on a collision course with the United States somewhere between Miami and the Texas/Louisiana border, possibly as a Category 4 or 5. The model guidance keeps pointing it straight ahead instead of curving it as originally forecast, and therefore within about 48 hours it would be safe to say, on its current path, that the East Coast is out of the woods. Bad news for Pensacola, Mobile and New Orleans if that happens though (but it could bring Atlanta some rain!). The Storm looks to become a hurricane by late Thursday night/early Friday morning, and is expected to be near Jamaica by early Monday morning as a Category 3 or maybe even 4. The Palm Beach Post and the Northwest Florida Daily News (covering Fort Walton Beach, Destin & Sandestin) are starting to heavily cover the story.
Meanwhile Tropical Depression Five is picking up steam and could become Tropical Storm Erin at any minute. The hurricane hunters are currently investigating. Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for Freeport, Texas down to Rio San Fernando, Mexico. On this map you can see the approximate 350 miles of Texas coast affected, including the counties of Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy, Kleburg, Nueces (Corpus Christi), Aransas (Corpus metro), Calhoun, Matagorda, and half of Brazoria (which is Houston metro) (south to north). Most likely however, it'll hit somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, but I think the more likely scenario is a direct hit on Corpus (which won't be so bad for winds, but may be really bad for this region that's already flooded as we speak). Jeff Morrow was in Port Aransas yesterday but has moved to Corpus Christi (see map here).
More updates to come...another 100 degree day here probably.
UPDATE:
Erin is up to 40 mph, but a hurricane hunter is investigating and this may be raised. At landfall tomorrow Erin may be just shy of a Cat 1 hurricane, with winds of about 70 mph. It is now expected to make a direct hit on Corpus Christi, which could be bad in terms of rain, especially in nearby Victoria, which will be in the right front quadrant. A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for all of the area mentioned earlier, but extended to San Luis Pass, which is the Galveston/Brazoria line. This means Tropical Storm conditions are expected in that area within the next 24 hours. Landfall is expected at 2 PM Eastern/1 Texas time tomorrow.
Dean is up to 65 mph, and should be a hurricane by this evening. Hurricane Watches may be required for the Lesser Antilles by this evening or tomorrow morning. It still looks like it is going to plow through the Yucatan Channel, maybe by late Monday/early Tuesday. This is the worst case scenario, as there would be nothing to inhibit the strength, and the most likely target would be somewhere like Houston. Can we see Rita evacuation, part II? At the present time, by Monday afternoon it is expected that Dean will be a strong Cat 4, if not a Cat 5. It may not be as strong as Katrina, but it may be close.
Also today it has at least hit 101 in Atlanta, maybe higher. At 5:25 it's currently 100. My poor lawn! Maybe Dean hitting us wouldn't be so bad (much better than hitting an already saturated Texas that is already starting to get Erin!).
Meanwhile Tropical Depression Five is picking up steam and could become Tropical Storm Erin at any minute. The hurricane hunters are currently investigating. Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for Freeport, Texas down to Rio San Fernando, Mexico. On this map you can see the approximate 350 miles of Texas coast affected, including the counties of Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy, Kleburg, Nueces (Corpus Christi), Aransas (Corpus metro), Calhoun, Matagorda, and half of Brazoria (which is Houston metro) (south to north). Most likely however, it'll hit somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, but I think the more likely scenario is a direct hit on Corpus (which won't be so bad for winds, but may be really bad for this region that's already flooded as we speak). Jeff Morrow was in Port Aransas yesterday but has moved to Corpus Christi (see map here).
More updates to come...another 100 degree day here probably.
UPDATE:
Erin is up to 40 mph, but a hurricane hunter is investigating and this may be raised. At landfall tomorrow Erin may be just shy of a Cat 1 hurricane, with winds of about 70 mph. It is now expected to make a direct hit on Corpus Christi, which could be bad in terms of rain, especially in nearby Victoria, which will be in the right front quadrant. A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for all of the area mentioned earlier, but extended to San Luis Pass, which is the Galveston/Brazoria line. This means Tropical Storm conditions are expected in that area within the next 24 hours. Landfall is expected at 2 PM Eastern/1 Texas time tomorrow.
Dean is up to 65 mph, and should be a hurricane by this evening. Hurricane Watches may be required for the Lesser Antilles by this evening or tomorrow morning. It still looks like it is going to plow through the Yucatan Channel, maybe by late Monday/early Tuesday. This is the worst case scenario, as there would be nothing to inhibit the strength, and the most likely target would be somewhere like Houston. Can we see Rita evacuation, part II? At the present time, by Monday afternoon it is expected that Dean will be a strong Cat 4, if not a Cat 5. It may not be as strong as Katrina, but it may be close.
Also today it has at least hit 101 in Atlanta, maybe higher. At 5:25 it's currently 100. My poor lawn! Maybe Dean hitting us wouldn't be so bad (much better than hitting an already saturated Texas that is already starting to get Erin!).
Labels: Heat, Hurricanes
posted by Hurricanes and Zip Codes | 6:22 AM
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