Ernesto...Cat 1?

It's possible...most likely making landfall at McClellanville, the site of the landfall for Hugo 17 years ago. It's down to 1000 mb, which is 1 mb down from landfall...it has intensfied rapidly, but we'll see if it holds. There are voluntary evacs for the islands off of Colleton & Charleston Counties, (i.e. Folly, IOP, Edisto, Kiawah). Schools are closed for most of Georgia & SC on Thursday, & the airport is closed in Charleston starting tomorrow.

Ernesto made Landfall...following in Gaston's shoes?

Ernesto made landfall last night at the Monroe/Miami-Dade line, near Flamingo, Florida. It should exit around Oak Hill, in Volusia County, sometime around Midnight tonight. It should then hit the North Carolina/South Carolina border around tomorrow afternoon, w/winds around 60 MPH (high Tropical Storm force). However, at least 1 model is predicting a CAT 2 Hurricane, because Ernesto will be going right over the Gulf Stream. Don't be surprised if it becomes a Depression today though...actually don't be surprised if it does anything at all because this storm has defied all predictions (strengthening when conditions unfavorable, not strengthening during favorable conditions, the erratic path, etc.).

Unfortunately, it then might stall out & cause flooding in places like Richmond, which experienced Hurricane Gaston's wrath in 2004 (and also Isabel in 2003). However, the state is very dry, so the rain won't be all bad as long as it's not flooding rain.

There are a few other waves in the Atlantic, but no eminent Florence's or Gordon's right now.

WATCHES & WARNINGS:
Tropical Storm Warning (conditions up to 73 MPH by 5 AM Thursday): all coastal Georgia counties; counties in Florida from SW to the GA/FL line;
Hurricane Watch (conditions could be +74 MPH by 9 PM Thursday): all coastal SC counties; Brunswick County, NC;
There is also a Flash Flood Watch for most of southern & southeastern Virginia (including a few northern North Carolina Counties).

UPDATE: The tropical storm warning has been extended from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including Wilmington, North Carolina & Camp Lejeune. The "storm" is still a depression, but will start to strengthen shortly when it reaches the Atlantic. It's currently 55 miles SW of Cape Canaveral.

Also, only 26 hours until football season!!!! I can't wait!

Tropical Storm Ernesto

A Tropical Storm warning is currently from Englewood, near Tampa/Fort Myers, all the way up north of Brunswick in Glynn County, Georgia. That means they should get Tropical Storm winds there within 24 hours. Hopefully the storm will move out by Friday when we go to Tybee Island, but you never know for sure. Right now the storm is expected to be north of Florence, South Carolina already by Friday morning (2 AM), so we SHOULD be in the clear, but the storm track, etc. has changed so much, there's no way to know. There is a 45% change that this could be a hurricane by Thursday at 11 AM....at the time the storm is near Jacksonville, Flordia. There are no real evacuations for residents at this time...only for those w/previously damaged homes and/or visitors.

Also, there's another wave being watched...this could be Florence. No idea yet on what the track of that would be.

More to come...

Marathon & Ernesto Update

Well, I did finish the marathon in about 4 hours...not the greatest time, but I was still happy...finishing is the most important (w/o killing yourself in the process!). It was definitely a cool experience. Will I do marathon #3? We shall see.

Ernesto update: Tropical Storm Warnings/Hurricane Watches will probably be issued for the rest of the coast of Georgia & southern coastal South Carolina this afternoon....so far the winds haven't picked up yet but should by the 5 PM advisory.

One year ago today...

This was the Advisory a year ago yesterday morning....

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... .HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

O Canada & Ernesto

We're in Quebec, quickly remembering our high school French....doing pretty good so far. Delta lost our bag but it was delivered in the middle of the night last night. We spent yesterday on a shopping spree in Montreal, including Roots, which is the quintessential Canadian store. Then we drove from Montreal to Quebec, which, after getting out of the city of Montreal, was very desolated, except for the farmhouses along the St. Lawrence River. Our hotel, the Loews, has an amazing view of the Chateau Frontenac, where we had drinks last night, as well as the Fleuve St.-Laurent behind it.

As far as Ernesto, it's looking bad for New Orleans and the rest of the Gulf Coast...everywhere from Lake Charles, Louisiana to Pensacola is currently in the "Cone of Death" by early Thursday morning. It looks like it would probably make landfall next weekend (while we're enjoying the beach in Tybee ironically). As of Tuesday morning, the anniversary of Katrina (8/29) it will be making landfall in Cuba as a CAT 1, 2 or 3 Hurricane...

Tropical Depression 5 or even Ernesto at 5 PM EDT

The hurricane hunters just got back & found a closed circulation in the southern Caribbean with winds just below Tropical Storm strength. The advisories are going to start at 5 PM, but by then the disturbance may officially be Ernesto. Updates to come I'm sure...

Tropics Heat up

1) Debby is official. It's a 50 mph storm as of 11 AM today. The advisories only come out every 6 hours because it's so far away from land. It's headed out to see eventually, but there is a chance it could affect land if it misses a ride around a ridge. Apparently the weaker Debby is the more chance it has to hit US land due to different steering currents....

2) However, there is a healthy tropical wave that the Hunters are going to investigate tomorrow. It's down by the Windward Islands, but could organize & head into the gulf. This would be Ernesto. This poses a much greater threat to the U.S. than anything else. I'm sure New Orleanians will be watching this closely (in addition to Tampa, Houston, Mobile, etc.).

3) Finally, TD-12 formed a year ago today. For those not in the know, this eventually turned into Tropical Storm...and then CAT 5 Hurricane Katrina.

On a decidedly non-tropical note, I'm off to Canada tomorrow night (well Vermont, then Canada Friday midday). I'm starting to feel rested and very excited. All is confirmed as well. It's supposed to range from the 50's to the 70's during that time period. That's going to feel COLD!

UPDATE: The Wave 325 miles away from the Windward Islands (the ones towards South America) is getting its act together & could be a depression by tomorrow...possibly even Ernesto. This is scary because it would then go into the Caribbean. More updates as they come in.

No Debby quite yet...

"Debby" is still in the form of Tropical Depression 4, but it is ready to become a Storm at any minute. Now the thinking is a strong tropical storm or possibly a weak Hurricane, but still no threat to land. The question is whether a strong ridge will affect it (probably) and when (unknown).

There is another something that is in the Caribbean that may cause some trouble. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate on Thursday if it's still around. This would be much more trouble and would be Ernesto assuming Debby does in fact form.

I'm off to cut the grass if it's dry enough from the storms...looks like we're finally getting some rain down here!

Debby is coming...

but probably not to the U.S. The storm, which right now is WAY out near the Cape Verde Islands, is probably a Depression already (but they wait to call it a T.D. until it holds together for a day if it's that far out), & looks very impressive. The experts think it'll become a CAT 1 Hurricane (Debby, & our first hurricane of the year), but veer north before it gets to the U.S.

There are however a bunch of features out there, & the wind shear which has been killing everything to date is dropping, so watch out...I hope our Tybee Island Labor Day trip is a go!

UPDATE: As soon as I wrote this, TD-4 has just officially formed, with Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. Expected max winds are 70 MPH (strong T.S.). No word on tracks yet, but most likely missing the U.S.

13 days...

Until football season! The flag goes up next Thursday!!! So excited to watch South Carolina/Mississippi state on that Thursday night.

Nothing in the tropics, except a strong wave near Africa...According to some though, the season's going to heat up after August 21 (Monday) due to some pattern changes that have been getting into place.

I went to the Swan House for lunch...wow...talk about ladies who lunch. Apparently getting the "Swan Special" was understood. Haha. It'd be a good place for a 3-martini lunch though.

Tomorrow night is Haven, then some birthday fun (although I can't say what b/c the person who's birthday will be celebrated reads this blog).

Hurricane Camille

On this night in history in 1969, Hurricane Camille made landfall as one of only 3 Cat 5's to make landfall in the US in the 1900's (the others being 1926 Labor Day Hurricane & 1992's Andrew). Contrary to popular belief, the "hurricane party" at the Richlieau Apartments probably did not happen, & more likely there were people staying there who thought the building was about the most sturdy around (not knowing about the crazy storm surge that would ensue).

There is nothing out there now...a potential Debby was off the NC/SC coast, but there is a front that will tear that to pieces before it can finish forming. It looks like though sometime around August 21st, things are really going to crank up...it'll be a real change, and a bit scary since some have let their guards down. However, you'll remember that in 2004, the 1st bad storm, Charley, didn't hit until August 14, & in 1992, Andrew didn't hit until about the 24th of August (A = first storm of the season).

Lots of possibilities

There are a bunch of tropical waves all of the sudden that could form, after a very quiet weekend tropically-speaking. One is east of the Cape Verdes, which is a bit unusual, and one is off an old low near Florida. We shall see...

I did my 12 miles on Saturday & it was actually pleasant. First, the weather was cool and even drizzly, so it felt great. Second, 12 on a Saturday seems like nothing these days.

I finally got around to trimming the hedges ringing our property...looks MUCH better. They were out of control...

Always something...

There is nothing at all remotely close to forming in the Atlantic as far as the Tropics are concerned...a little unusual for this time of year.

However, everyone by now knows about the scary terrorist plot, apparently set for 8/22/06 (an important day in Islam?) or even next week, which would be REALLY bad for obviously reasons but also because I am flying on 8/24 to go to the Quebec Marathon. However the backup was to do it today. Freaky thinking that it was possibly this day could have gone down in infamy. Luckily this is not the case. I guess we'll be checking our bags though ( :( ), w/or w/o our cell phones & iPods.

Only 12 miles this weekend. I am so excited. I'm doing my "long run" (an 8-miler) for next week on Monday night so I don't have to run 1 step (unless I'm by chance in SW Atlanta) next Saturday & instead go on the CNN tour &/or the Georgia Aquarium, the world's largest.

Also, for once we're agreeing w/the French...we're on the same side regarding the Hezbollah/Middle East crisis.

Nuthin...

The hurricane hunters just got back from investigating the wave near the Antilles & found no depression (just like the Uncle Tupelo song). They are going to investigate again at 8 PM, so there is potential. The "strongest" case scenario is that it forms a weak Tropical Storm [Debby] & dissipates, but more likely just a temporary Tropical Depression [4]. We shall see.

Staring down the barrel of a gun or just a quiet season?

The buzz now is that the hurricane season has been quiet...but is it a sign of the season or just the fact that the Atlantic has not yet heated up, as is typical about the middle of August. Who knows?

There is a wave that is developing out in the Atlantic. However, it's expected to dissapate over the Leeward Islands before it can make it to land in the U.S. and/or the Gulf of Mexico. Not sure if this will be Debby or not. A hurricane hunter is supposed to go out tomorrow at 2 PM EDT, so we'll know a lot more then. Debby sounds like a really bad hurricane to me...haha. As you can see here though, Debby has never hit the U.S.

Also, for those of you that haven't heard, read about Darren Sherman, also replayed many times on Bert Show. You can even by Darren Sherman gear, w/catch phrases like "You ate the food; You drank the wine", and "Do the right thing".

Chris' status still unknown

No one really seems to know if Chris (a Tropical Depression) will fizzle out, or if it will be a Tropical Storm hitting somewhere between Houston and central Mexico. Other than that no tropical waves to speak of.

Hurricane or Tropical Depression

Does anyone really know what Chris will do? As of yesterday it was doom & gloom, but now everyone is cheerful. However, it's not clear if Chris will hold together enough to get into the Gulf, or fizzle out before then. If it is the same circulation center, even if it's downgraded below a Depression (a wave?) it'll still be Chris. Wait and see. Right now it's BARELY a Tropical Storm.

In other news, I went to Athens, Georgia last night & had a great meal at Porterhouse. I love college towns! My parents were pleasantly surprised by the weather...apparently it's cooler here than in Williamsburg.

Hurricane Watch in the lower Bahamas

Things are getting more serious...a Hurricane Watch has been posted in the lower Bahamas. It looks like by the time Chris gets there it could be a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane. Most likely it'll hit Key West head on & then head out into the warm Gulf waters. That would be really bad for Mexico (hit by Stan), Houston (Rita), New Orleans (Cindy & Katrina), Pensacola (Dennis & Ivan) or Southwest Florida (Wilma & Charley). We shall see....

Most likely he'll be a hurricane by the 2 PM or 5 PM advisory.

UPDATE: Chris is not yet a hurricane but will probably be so within 24 hours. Monroe County, Florida (i.e. the Keys) has issued a press release about Chris. As of now there are no watches, warnings or evacuations, but there could be as early as the morning depending on how he does this evening in terms of tracking and strengthening.

Could Chris hit New Orleans?

It's looking closer to that being true. Look at this map. Instead of hitting South Florida or heading up the Atlantic, he could skirt between Havanna (weird considering today's events) and Key West, and end up in the hot, hot Gulf, with the Loop Current eddy swirling. Then it's nothing but land to hit. Yikes! We should know more later. As of now, Chris will be south of Miami on Sunday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Chris

Chris just formed in the Atlantic. Instantly the headlines went up on all South Florida newspapers (ex. here). Right now they are saying that it's not expected to reach hurricane status, but who really knows. They'll have a better idea tonight when the Hurricane Hunters fly into it. Apparently there is a tightrope where it could explode, but that's not expected. It might hit Florida anywhere between Sunday and Tuesday however.

I'm sure the Weather Channel is going nuts already.

UPDATE: As of the 11 AM EDT/AST advisory, Chris has not strengthened. The Hurricane Hunters are going out at 2 PM EDT/AST to investigate & then we'll know a lot more. The NHC is shifting the track a bit more northward, but that doesn' t really mean anything this far out yet.